My kid was asking me about the likelihood of aliens in the universe and got all freaked out, yet thinks AI is cool and funny. Made me think we should start referring to it as Alien Intelligence and memeing the idea that we’re building an Alien, not something Artificial. Seems more resonant with normies and understanding the stakes. Also arguably more accurate.
I think the "Do people think AIs are sentient?" survey is being confounded with the more fundamental question of "Do people understand what 'sentient' means?"
"Imagine asking someone for advice if all your conversations had to be posted online as transcripts, and how that would change your behavior, now understand that many people think that would be good."
This seems like applying the Most Forbidden Technique to humans, with similarly undesired results...
Didn't "mirror neurons" get debunked/fail to pass replication? Coulda sworn Scott discussed this at some point...
The SOO paper makes me wish for more funding in alignment, better researcher access to frontier models, prerelease testing, etc...it's a neat demonstration! But only on weaker models that are cheap to do science with. "Works on Mistral" is like the AI equivalent of "IN MICE". Except even more than cancer cures or whatever, here we care almost entirely about what happens on the long tail of frontier models only, so generalizing from a weak case ranges from less-useful-than-expected to actively-misleading. Also illustrates the frustration with open source - clearly very useful for research, but the higher those capabilities get...
The AI memes are...I mean they're not not memes, clearly some of the fundamentals are grasped. But it's like going through an extra interprative step where something gets lost in translation. Partly in the formatting (It's The Principle Of The Thing, consistency is important for expectations), partly in the "you're using Setup X with Meme Image Y" thing where they don't quite match up. For now I think we're still in the Impressive Slop phase, while admitting of course that quantity has a quality all its own. Some of the more linguistic-based ones might work better? The recursive nature of "yo dawg, we heard you like yo-yoing, so we put your dog in a yo-yo..." seems ripe for AI innovation, for example.
Relatedly, that's also why I disagree that people won't want to "connect" with "AI creatives". Trying to understand the alien thought process behind subtly-off humour is *more* interesting to me than figuring out what makes Louis C.K. tick. We understand the fundamentals of human humour pretty well, the rest is just in the execution. It's like picking up the humour from non-Western cultures, suddenly you've got a whole new area of mindspace to explore and it's got that shiny scent of novelty that rereading Samuel Johnson on why puns are outre.
Anthropic appear to be advertising a mid to senior developer position in London for 255k-450k GBP
Not sure what to make of that. It’s so far above local market rate as to be ludicrous. (You could get one of the best senior developers in the UK for a quarter of that top number. 450k gets you god.)
Is it fake? Has anyone actually been hired on these numbers? Should I immediately quit my technical leadership position to apply for this mid-level developer role?
Why wouldn't it be real? I mean, isn't that exactly the reaction they want? Isn't it a good deal for them? You code just as well in London as others do in SF.
I've been an improv performer/instructor for 15 years. By volume most improv shows are pretty bad, because the shows themselves are consumption goods for the performers who are typically the students in improv classes. I haven't ever tried doing a scene with claude, I'm now curious. I'll do one and if people are interested give my review of claude as an improv scene partner
For the interested: I was able to get Claude 4 to do a quality improv scene, but only on the 4th attempt. The first three scenes varied in caliber from solid to subpar-- they very much reminded me of scenework with intermediate students who index too strongly on the rules and don't react honestly. Once we reviewed those scenes the next one was stronger. In the following transcript I was actor 1, claude opus 4 was actor 2
## Scene 4:
Actor 1: [Walks out on stage, begins digging through cupboards, rifling through them as if looking for something. Shouts offstage] It's not in the pantry.
Actor 2: [Rushes in from stage left, carrying an armful of pool noodles] Well it's definitely not in the garage either! Just these old pool noodles and that box of your mom's wedding china we promised we'd never touch. [Drops the pool noodles with a clatter] Honey, are you SURE you put it back after the Henderson's barbecue? Because I distinctly remember you saying you'd "put it somewhere logical this time." [Starts checking jacket pockets hanging by the door]
Actor 1: [Crosses over and hugs Actor 2, then pats the sides of their shoulders in a soothing but condescending manner] Respectfully honey, this is our last piece of cursed gold, do you really think that I would be so reckless as to lose it after showing the Hendersons. To imagine you think so little of me rocks me to my core.
Now come, stop distracting me. [Digs around a floor level cupboard stage left until finding something. Says "Aha", stands up, affixing a headlamp to head] Now I'm equipped to look properly. Remind me to reorganize that one, I keep meaning to get all that junk sorted but for whatever reason I never make the time.
Actor 2: [Watches with mixture of affection and exasperation as Actor 1 fumbles with headlamp] Oh yes, you'll reorganize it. Just like you reorganized the attic three years ago, which is why we still can't find the Christmas decorations. [Picks up one of the pool noodles, peers inside it hopefully] And for the record, I don't think you LOST it. I think you put it somewhere "clever" again. Like when you hid the car keys in the freezer because "thieves never check there." [Suddenly freezes] Wait. The Hendersons. Didn't their daughter pick up your jacket by mistake when they were leaving? The jacket with all the inside pockets you had specially made for "important items"? [Turns to face Actor 1, headlamp beam hitting eyes] Ow! Could you— never mind. Should we perhaps call them before the curse, you know... activates? How long do we have again?
Actor 1: [Flips headlamp up so it's not in Actor 2's eyes, eyes drifting up in thought] Well if the Henderson girl took the gold, even without meaning to, the demon would interpret that as her holding covetousness in her heart, and thus as an invitation to our plane. She would then of course have to pass the trials. [Walks across room, opens closet, starts donning wizard battle garb] They're more your friends than mine, what's the etiquette here. And what do you think of Cassie, will she prove worthy of crossing the threshold? Also, do you think we need to bring a bottle of wine? [Begins to wrap Actor 2's sacred combat vestments around them]
Actor 2: [Lifts arms obediently as Actor 1 wraps the vestments, sighing] Cassie Henderson is eleven years old and still sleeps with a nightlight. Last week she cried because her hamster looked at her "weird." I highly doubt she's ready for the Threshold of Eternal Judgment. [Adjusts the vestments, checking various hidden pockets] Though I suppose her mother did survive that whole incident with the haunted Pinterest board, so maybe it's genetic? [Grabs ceremonial staff from closet, tests its weight] And yes, definitely bring wine. The Hendersons are "bring a dish to share" people even during normal visits. Showing up to save their daughter from demonic trials empty-handed would be... tacky. [Pauses, looking at Actor 1 with sudden worry] Oh god, what if they're eating dinner? Do we wait for them to finish? I've never had to do an emergency exorcism on people I play bunco with.
Podcast episode for this post:
https://open.substack.com/pub/dwatvpodcast/p/ai-108-straight-line-on-a-graph?r=67y1h&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
The very top graph doesn't show up here.
> I wake up
> another straight line on a graph
Good thing my knowledge and abilities double every 7 months or this would be bad
My kid was asking me about the likelihood of aliens in the universe and got all freaked out, yet thinks AI is cool and funny. Made me think we should start referring to it as Alien Intelligence and memeing the idea that we’re building an Alien, not something Artificial. Seems more resonant with normies and understanding the stakes. Also arguably more accurate.
I still like invasive species. Doesn’t imply sentience
Sure, but I think renaming AI is a snappy memetic way to spread the idea of inherent risk
Artificial Invaders!
I think the "Do people think AIs are sentient?" survey is being confounded with the more fundamental question of "Do people understand what 'sentient' means?"
"Imagine asking someone for advice if all your conversations had to be posted online as transcripts, and how that would change your behavior, now understand that many people think that would be good."
This seems like applying the Most Forbidden Technique to humans, with similarly undesired results...
Didn't "mirror neurons" get debunked/fail to pass replication? Coulda sworn Scott discussed this at some point...
The SOO paper makes me wish for more funding in alignment, better researcher access to frontier models, prerelease testing, etc...it's a neat demonstration! But only on weaker models that are cheap to do science with. "Works on Mistral" is like the AI equivalent of "IN MICE". Except even more than cancer cures or whatever, here we care almost entirely about what happens on the long tail of frontier models only, so generalizing from a weak case ranges from less-useful-than-expected to actively-misleading. Also illustrates the frustration with open source - clearly very useful for research, but the higher those capabilities get...
The AI memes are...I mean they're not not memes, clearly some of the fundamentals are grasped. But it's like going through an extra interprative step where something gets lost in translation. Partly in the formatting (It's The Principle Of The Thing, consistency is important for expectations), partly in the "you're using Setup X with Meme Image Y" thing where they don't quite match up. For now I think we're still in the Impressive Slop phase, while admitting of course that quantity has a quality all its own. Some of the more linguistic-based ones might work better? The recursive nature of "yo dawg, we heard you like yo-yoing, so we put your dog in a yo-yo..." seems ripe for AI innovation, for example.
Relatedly, that's also why I disagree that people won't want to "connect" with "AI creatives". Trying to understand the alien thought process behind subtly-off humour is *more* interesting to me than figuring out what makes Louis C.K. tick. We understand the fundamentals of human humour pretty well, the rest is just in the execution. It's like picking up the humour from non-Western cultures, suddenly you've got a whole new area of mindspace to explore and it's got that shiny scent of novelty that rereading Samuel Johnson on why puns are outre.
What is the ‘can’t silently drop certain sources no matter what’ rule?
What do people use 4B and 1B models for?
Anthropic appear to be advertising a mid to senior developer position in London for 255k-450k GBP
Not sure what to make of that. It’s so far above local market rate as to be ludicrous. (You could get one of the best senior developers in the UK for a quarter of that top number. 450k gets you god.)
Is it fake? Has anyone actually been hired on these numbers? Should I immediately quit my technical leadership position to apply for this mid-level developer role?
Why wouldn't it be real? I mean, isn't that exactly the reaction they want? Isn't it a good deal for them? You code just as well in London as others do in SF.
Because companies don’t usually pay hundreds of thousands of pounds more than they need to!
Could be they’re committed to a single global payscale for cultural reasons?
But yeah they’ll have their absolute pick at that number
I've been an improv performer/instructor for 15 years. By volume most improv shows are pretty bad, because the shows themselves are consumption goods for the performers who are typically the students in improv classes. I haven't ever tried doing a scene with claude, I'm now curious. I'll do one and if people are interested give my review of claude as an improv scene partner
For the interested: I was able to get Claude 4 to do a quality improv scene, but only on the 4th attempt. The first three scenes varied in caliber from solid to subpar-- they very much reminded me of scenework with intermediate students who index too strongly on the rules and don't react honestly. Once we reviewed those scenes the next one was stronger. In the following transcript I was actor 1, claude opus 4 was actor 2
## Scene 4:
Actor 1: [Walks out on stage, begins digging through cupboards, rifling through them as if looking for something. Shouts offstage] It's not in the pantry.
Actor 2: [Rushes in from stage left, carrying an armful of pool noodles] Well it's definitely not in the garage either! Just these old pool noodles and that box of your mom's wedding china we promised we'd never touch. [Drops the pool noodles with a clatter] Honey, are you SURE you put it back after the Henderson's barbecue? Because I distinctly remember you saying you'd "put it somewhere logical this time." [Starts checking jacket pockets hanging by the door]
Actor 1: [Crosses over and hugs Actor 2, then pats the sides of their shoulders in a soothing but condescending manner] Respectfully honey, this is our last piece of cursed gold, do you really think that I would be so reckless as to lose it after showing the Hendersons. To imagine you think so little of me rocks me to my core.
Now come, stop distracting me. [Digs around a floor level cupboard stage left until finding something. Says "Aha", stands up, affixing a headlamp to head] Now I'm equipped to look properly. Remind me to reorganize that one, I keep meaning to get all that junk sorted but for whatever reason I never make the time.
Actor 2: [Watches with mixture of affection and exasperation as Actor 1 fumbles with headlamp] Oh yes, you'll reorganize it. Just like you reorganized the attic three years ago, which is why we still can't find the Christmas decorations. [Picks up one of the pool noodles, peers inside it hopefully] And for the record, I don't think you LOST it. I think you put it somewhere "clever" again. Like when you hid the car keys in the freezer because "thieves never check there." [Suddenly freezes] Wait. The Hendersons. Didn't their daughter pick up your jacket by mistake when they were leaving? The jacket with all the inside pockets you had specially made for "important items"? [Turns to face Actor 1, headlamp beam hitting eyes] Ow! Could you— never mind. Should we perhaps call them before the curse, you know... activates? How long do we have again?
Actor 1: [Flips headlamp up so it's not in Actor 2's eyes, eyes drifting up in thought] Well if the Henderson girl took the gold, even without meaning to, the demon would interpret that as her holding covetousness in her heart, and thus as an invitation to our plane. She would then of course have to pass the trials. [Walks across room, opens closet, starts donning wizard battle garb] They're more your friends than mine, what's the etiquette here. And what do you think of Cassie, will she prove worthy of crossing the threshold? Also, do you think we need to bring a bottle of wine? [Begins to wrap Actor 2's sacred combat vestments around them]
Actor 2: [Lifts arms obediently as Actor 1 wraps the vestments, sighing] Cassie Henderson is eleven years old and still sleeps with a nightlight. Last week she cried because her hamster looked at her "weird." I highly doubt she's ready for the Threshold of Eternal Judgment. [Adjusts the vestments, checking various hidden pockets] Though I suppose her mother did survive that whole incident with the haunted Pinterest board, so maybe it's genetic? [Grabs ceremonial staff from closet, tests its weight] And yes, definitely bring wine. The Hendersons are "bring a dish to share" people even during normal visits. Showing up to save their daughter from demonic trials empty-handed would be... tacky. [Pauses, looking at Actor 1 with sudden worry] Oh god, what if they're eating dinner? Do we wait for them to finish? I've never had to do an emergency exorcism on people I play bunco with.
[Lights fade to black]