Aikido Picks 5/11

Break time once again

After today, I’ll be on a trip, so no more picks will happen until at least Sunday, and possibly until later next week. If I find some time, I could run the results while I’m on the trip, but that would be it. If the results don’t look good, I’ll consider winding things down at least for a while so I can focus my attention elsewhere. It’s clear the closing line value numbers are bad (they’d be less bad if I bet the day before, but still bad) and readership/use isn’t gaining much momentum.

For today, it looks like there’s a lot of passing going on, but that’s because I list anything with even 1 cent of value versus my number - most of these passes are not remotely interesting offers, nor do they make me worry about the program (or the lines).

Picks

953 Phillies +118

We keep taking the Phillies, which is odd since they keep outperforming and the market keeps insisting on its adjustments, but these things certainly happen.

955 Cardinals +110

Straightforward spot where I’m getting odds and likely shouldn’t be.

959 Marlins +105

959/960 Marlins/Diamondbacks Over 7.5-108

Either we believe Bumgarner is who the oddsmakers claim, or he isn’t. Presumably that’s the disagreement here, but he’s been old and busted for a while and I’m willing to book this claim given how much edge we’ve been given. It would be reasonable to pick only one line and discard the other.

962 Tigers +122

Thin value is still value and home underdogs are generally a good place to be.

967 Twins +106

Solid value.

969/970 Angels/Astros Over 8.5+100

I don’t have a good explanation for how we’re getting this line, but as usual at this level of edge we don’t need one given the coast seems clear. I’m sad that Ohtani isn’t a better pitcher because he has lots of story value, but that’s how it goes.

971/972 Rangers/Giants Under 8-104

I don’t really ‘get’ the math on games like this but I don’t think Aikido is bugged, and that’s probably why others are making the same mistake - it doesn’t intuitively make sense to people.

976 Mets -151

I’m a little concerned to be betting on the Mets offense like this, although not concerned enough to take a total or take a pass. I’m also slightly concerned that Stroman is overrated, but the Mets bullpen seems great and had a day off, and the new hitting coach has us drawing a ton of walks which may not be a coincidence. That puts me back around something like ‘willing to go with it.’