Aikido Picks 5/17

Home sweet home means picks sweet picks

We’re back for a few days after my trip to Florida. At some point soon I should update with results post #3, and I have almost no idea what I will find when I do. We’ll miss on Wednesday, but that should only last one day.

Reasonably large number of disagreements today. Not having been up for a while does make us potentially nervous about that, since we have less context, so I’d do research to ensure nothing big has been missed.

951 Giants/Reds Over 8-109

Big edge and we agree on the side. Very safe.

953/954 Mets/Braves Under 8-106

953 Mets +136

I love the Mets line here, unless a lot has happened in the games I haven’t seen yet. Walker’s last outing was great, and while the Mets may still be somewhat injured, our replacements are solid, our offense has been downgraded a bit and we also like the under. The total isn’t as exciting but feels quite safe in context.

955 Nationals +138

This is a little thin and I’d be willing to skip it but Lester being rated below replacement makes it hard to be that wrong.

958 Dodgers -213

It’s rare that we like big favorites but the logic here seems straightforward. Even if we’re wrong, we’re not that wrong.

961/962 White Sox/Twins Under 9.5-111

Huge edge here, enough that I am very curious where the difference is coming from.

963/964 Yankees/Rangers Over 8-105

It’s not that unusual for totals to be off when there’s a giant road favorite, and this is one of the biggest ones you will see. The runline and moneyline don’t fully agree, but they don’t disagree enough to give us something worth doing.

965 Indians +126

965/966 Indians/Angels Under 9+101

I like doing both here since it’s hedging our opinion of Sandoval.

967 Tigers +161

967/968 Tigers/Mariners Under 7.5-103

This kind of under bet doesn’t feel right to me even with all the time I’ve spent with the math. It’s hard to appreciate that bad pitchers plus bad offenses can land you here, but it definitely can - bad pitchers aren’t really that bad compared to bad offenses. The Tigers line seems like lots of value.