Aikido Picks 5/2

Scheduling notes

I will be in New York City from Monday through Wednesday visiting friends. I will thus be unlikely to be able to run the program those days; I may get a chance for Monday but very low chance for Tuesday or Wednesday. Picks should resume Thursday. Results post 3 likely will wait until I catch up on games after my return.

Note that if you’d like to meet up with me while I’m in NYC, drop me your contact info either in the comments or elsewhere. I have open time on Mon/Wed right now.

I moved several good under options from picks into passes, because I don’t want to be too overweight the under, or overweight totals in general versus sides. There’s no rush to get a giant sample.

PASSING: 903/904 Cardinals/Pirates Under 8.5-113

904 Pirates +134

This was one of the marginal totals I pulled. We like a side and I’m happy to express my opinion that way instead. The flip side is that I’m generally comfortable betting an under when Aikido thinks both pitchers are bad, because what’s the big mistake I could be making?

909 Rockies +131

I do worry that the Rockies are even worse than this especially away from Coors, but we’re getting paid for it.

913/914 Mets/Phillies Under 9-118

Always happy to take an under in a Mets game these days. Might move to a principle of needing 0 cents edge to do that soon, or at most 5, but I don’t want to corrupt the record too much with my personal opinions even when strongly held.

915/916 Tigers/Yankees Over 8.5-111

PASSING: Yankees -252

In a lower-juice world I’d be happy to get the balance of the occasional big favorite, but the price these days seems too steep so I need more edge than this. The total is great since we’re going over in a sea of under bets.

919/920 Indians/White Sox Under 8-101

This is only slightly better than the two bets that we cut, but it’s definitely better. Note that while +146 is definitely not interesting, there’s a good chance we are offered +160 or more mid-day and that would be interesting if we verify we have a good lineup (to avoid adverse selection in price moves), but I’m not at the attention level to do that.

921/922 Royals/Twins Under 8.5-112

Big enough edge.

923 Red Sox +124

I’m confused how this line exists. It seems like the Red Sox are being downgraded recently and I don’t see a good reason.

925 Orioles +1.5 -108

PASSING: 925/926 Orioles/Athletics Under 8.5-114

This is a very solid runline edge over the moneyline odds of +182, which we likely would have taken if that was the only option. It also lets us express our under opinion, which we are not taking directly due to our balance issues.