Aikido Picks 5/3

See you Thursday

Got a window to do these in the morning, but won’t have a chance tomorrow or Wednesday.

951/952 Brewers/Phillies Under 8.5+102

957/958 Giants/Rockies Over 10-107

Coors beckons once again. Perhaps it’s changed, but I don’t see any signs it’s changed this much.

961/962 Rangers/Twins Under 8.5-116

967 Blue Jays +111

967/968 Blue Jays/Angels Under 8.5-111

Both seem good enough that I’m fine taking both.

Finally, we’re going to do something a little different, and do conditional future wagering:

PASSING: 954 Cubs +177

TAKING: 954 Cubs +1.5 +107 and 12.2% chance of landing or better

TAKING: 955/956 Mets/Cardinals Under 7+109 or better

What this mean is, if when the runline is available on the Cubs game, we will check it twice - when it first opens, and when it closes. If at either point, the offer is Cubs +1.5 +107 or better, and it represents a chance of the game ‘landing 1’ that is 12.2% or better (e.g. the difference in odds between it and the moneyline is 12.2% or less, comparing both potential Cubs wagers) we will take that bet. We check the opener fist (of course) and if that’s not good enough we check the closing line. If neither passes this check, we will pass on the game. I expect to usually make this wager.

For the Mets game, we will bet on the Under here if it is value to us at all. Thus, if we can get Under 7+109 or better at Pinnacle (and only Pinnacle), again either when it opens or when it closes, we will take it, because we love DeGrom under bets so much. We will treat the 7 as being worth 32 cents in a conversion.

In both cases, if we take the opener the game will count towards line movement, but if we take the closing price, we will not count the line movement because by construction the line won’t move.