Aikido Picks 5/8

Lots of offline

The Twins game poses a dilemma, as we’ll see in a minute:

901 Rockies +162

I’ll definitely take that.

911/912 Phillies/Braves Under 9-114

There are a bunch of marginal totals available, I decided to take the best two available and pass on the rest.

915 Twins -186 (not Pinnacle)

If I’d gotten there a half hour earlier, I’d have picked up -179 and been quite happy about it. Instead, Pinnacle moved to -192, while the rest of the books out there still had numbers lower than that, with several opportunities below -180, but Pinnacle hadn’t been consistently high earlier. One could argue our rule is purely there’s one book, take it or leave it, but in this case it’s a true outlier and one could get down quite a bit at lower levels, so I’m giving us the line of -186 as a compromise that represents taking out the screen collectively, so I don’t feel life pressure to wait for a better spot in a few hours. If you think that’s not reasonable, go ahead and charge us the full -192 to avoid creating too much divergence. In real life, if I had access only to Pinnacle, I would wait in this spot. If you’re betting small, taking the -177 or similar odds in a few places right now is pretty great.

921 Blue Jays +127

921/922 Blue Jays/Astros Under 9-106

Total is right on the edge, side is solid.

924 Royals +1.5 +104

This is great, we get the math edge from the runline on a side that was already exciting.

927 Reds +109

We think favorite is wrong so very happy here.