951 Phillies J. Arrieta Over 10.0 +101
952 Nationals E. Fedde +113
953 Red Sox K. Hart Over 10.5 -106
954 Blue Jays C. Anderson -101
955 Orioles T. Milone Over 7.5 -103
956 Rays T. Glasnow -229
957 Twins R. Hill Over 7.5 +101
958 Indians S. Bieber -158
965 Pirates S. Brault Over 9.0 -115
966 White Sox L. Giolito -213
967 Reds L. Castillo Over 7.5 -110
968 Brewers B. Woodruff -107
969 Royals M. Harvey Over 8.0 -110
970 Cardinals A. Wainwright -113
971 Athletics S. Manaea Over 10 -109
972 Rangers K. Gibson 151
973 Angels J. Suarez Over 11.0 +105
974 Astros C. Javier -194
975 Mariners M. Gonzales Over 7.5 -103
976 Padres C. Paddack -165
977 Rockies G. Marquez Over 9.0 -111
978 Diamondbacks A. Young +112
979 Dodgers J. Urias Over 9.0 -101
980 Giants J. Cueto +218
There are definitely some kinks left to be worked out in the 2020 version. Baseball’s gone through a lot of changes. I’ve gotten to some of them, but there are some minor ones I know I need to address, and probably some stuff I’m forgetting. Comments and suggestions are welcome.
Differences of opinion with the opening lines worth considering a wager on:
951/952: We weakly like the Phillies -101, which is available at Bookmaker right now.
955/956: We like Under 8.5-105 and we weakly like laying -200 on the Rays. We highly disrespect the Orioles’ ability to score.
957/958: We weakly like Under 8-105 here.
971/972: Over 9.5+100 seems pretty good. Today’s total in Texas looked like an easy over too though, and only went down, so until settling into a groove it likely makes sense to skip this.
973/974: Over 10-105 is seems good enough to be interesting, Astros -159 is even better. Our moneylines seem more solid than our totals and the gap here is large. Both plays are us saying Suarez is terrible.
979/980: The math doesn’t typically say to take huge road favorites, but the program thinks the Dodgers this year are something else and this is a mismatch on all sides. So yes I’d be willing to lay -195 and see what happens.
Also note that laying big chalk is not typically what the program did historically. So seeing it do it here repeatedly is interesting. Anything can happen in a pandemic, perhaps is the thinking?
Thus our slate is (skipping the Rangers over):
951 Phillies -101
956 Rays -200
955/956 Orioles/Rays Under 8.5-105
957/958: Twins/Indians Under 8-105
973/974: Angels/Astros Over 10-105 and Astros -159
979/980: Dodgers -195
I’m rushing this out there as early as I can, in all senses. I only got the program working again yesterday. So suggestions on what might be wrong or missing are most welcome in the comments!