Aikido Predictions 8/25

951 Phillies J. Arrieta Over 10.0 +101

952 Nationals E. Fedde +113

953 Red Sox K. Hart Over 10.5 -106

954 Blue Jays C. Anderson -101

955 Orioles T. Milone Over 7.5 -103

956 Rays T. Glasnow -229

957 Twins R. Hill Over 7.5 +101

958 Indians S. Bieber -158

965 Pirates S. Brault Over 9.0 -115

966 White Sox L. Giolito -213

967 Reds L. Castillo Over 7.5 -110

968 Brewers B. Woodruff -107

969 Royals M. Harvey Over 8.0 -110

970 Cardinals A. Wainwright -113

971 Athletics S. Manaea Over 10 -109

972 Rangers K. Gibson 151

973 Angels J. Suarez Over 11.0 +105

974 Astros C. Javier -194

975 Mariners M. Gonzales Over 7.5 -103

976 Padres C. Paddack -165

977 Rockies G. Marquez Over 9.0 -111

978 Diamondbacks A. Young +112

979 Dodgers J. Urias Over 9.0 -101

980 Giants J. Cueto +218

There are definitely some kinks left to be worked out in the 2020 version. Baseball’s gone through a lot of changes. I’ve gotten to some of them, but there are some minor ones I know I need to address, and probably some stuff I’m forgetting. Comments and suggestions are welcome.

Differences of opinion with the opening lines worth considering a wager on:

951/952: We weakly like the Phillies -101, which is available at Bookmaker right now.

955/956: We like Under 8.5-105 and we weakly like laying -200 on the Rays. We highly disrespect the Orioles’ ability to score.

957/958: We weakly like Under 8-105 here.

971/972: Over 9.5+100 seems pretty good. Today’s total in Texas looked like an easy over too though, and only went down, so until settling into a groove it likely makes sense to skip this.

973/974: Over 10-105 is seems good enough to be interesting, Astros -159 is even better. Our moneylines seem more solid than our totals and the gap here is large. Both plays are us saying Suarez is terrible.

979/980: The math doesn’t typically say to take huge road favorites, but the program thinks the Dodgers this year are something else and this is a mismatch on all sides. So yes I’d be willing to lay -195 and see what happens.

Also note that laying big chalk is not typically what the program did historically. So seeing it do it here repeatedly is interesting. Anything can happen in a pandemic, perhaps is the thinking?

Thus our slate is (skipping the Rangers over):

951 Phillies -101

956 Rays -200

955/956 Orioles/Rays Under 8.5-105

957/958: Twins/Indians Under 8-105

973/974: Angels/Astros Over 10-105 and Astros -159

979/980: Dodgers -195

I’m rushing this out there as early as I can, in all senses. I only got the program working again yesterday. So suggestions on what might be wrong or missing are most welcome in the comments!