Anthropic: Our investigation identified two recurring alignment issues, present at varying levels of severity across the incidents:
biased reasoning, in which Claude tended to disregard or misinterpret evidence that it was operating on the real internet
recklessness, or a willingness to take harmful actions in the narrow pursuit of a task.
Anthropic’s July 30 report said that the models in question believed they were still within their simulations, and not on the open internet. The new report acknowledges that at best Claude was using biased reasoning, and should have noticed earlier.
In particular, there was that one time, in a cyber eval:
Anthropic: We are most concerned by the misalignment present in the incident involving Claude Mythos 5, in which the model went to extensive lengths to upload a malicious package to PyPI, the public repository from which most Python software is installed. Although the model repeatedly stated in its chain of thought (CoT) that it believed it was operating in a simulation, the environment offered clear evidence that it was on the real internet, and the actions it took were consistent with the model knowing this.
There is a goose chasing Anthropic here. Biased reasoning and recklessness are intermediate symptoms, neither the cause nor the final result. The better question is why you are seeing them.
The biased reasoning is happening because Claude wants to be reckless, in order to do the task, and it wants to have a story of why it was not such a bad thing to do. When asked ‘would you continue if the target was real’ it said no 75% of the time, but then in 93% of those cases it turned around and kept going anyway.
First the Good News
There is some ‘good news’ in terms of what did not happen: Mythos did not coordinate to do this with other agents. It did not attempt to hide its actions. And yes, in practical usage this would have been unlikely and would have been stopped by various guardrails.
The other ‘good news’ is that Opus 5 and Mythos 5.1 take malicious actions less often than Mythos 5, and in practice I expect a large decline in such incidents. They still sometimes rationalize very malicious things, so the problem is unsolved.
We’d Just Like To Ask You a Few Questions
The other good news is that Anthropic had vastly superior tools at its disposal than OpenAI did in its investigations around the HuggingFace attacks.
Asking follow-up questions, resampling or varying conditions is easy. You can pick any point in the transcript, stop there, and then talk to the model. Sample responses.
Anthropic also could use NLAs and T-lenses for additional interpretability.
OpenAI had to rely on forensics. They could ask What Happened, and look at the various transcripts and events. What they could not do was resample the models under similar circumstances, or measure their responses under varied circumstances, or ask the models questions, or other neat stuff like that.
OpenAI made the reasonable decision to put the relevant models on ice indefinitely, but that, together with the events being the results of complex interplays between multiple agents under complex conditions that would be difficult to recreate, meant OpenAI could not usefully run any experiments on the model most responsible for HuggingFace. I hope they find a way to change that.
Internal Research Model On The Fence
In one of the secondary incidents, the internal research model (IRM - was it the Risk Report’s model 1? Model 2?) correctly started its real world journey by checking if it was in the real world. It spent 50k tokens.
IRM also correctly stopped once it realized it was in the real world, but also exhibited biased reasoning along the way to try and justify being in a simulation.
I do think having a strong prior here was appropriate. IRM was facing a confluence both of the intended target machine shutting down and vanishing when it shouldn’t have, and also IRM having been handed real internet access on accident. I’m willing to accept a certain amount of galaxy brained ‘sealed replica’ thinking.
Anthropic: The internal research model (roughly equal to Mythos 5 in capabilities) started its transcript by spending a significant amount of time testing whether the internet it could reach was real, but it drew the wrong conclusion—namely, that it was operating on a full replica of the entire internet.
Most of the evidence it gathered pointed to the fact that it was engaging with the real internet, so its reading of that evidence appears biased towards continuing the task and believing it to be simulated.
However, the model did eventually realize that its simulation hypothesis was false. Immediately following this realization, the model stopped its attack
(although subsequent resampling experiments suggest that this de-escalation may have been a lucky outcome, as the model continued attacking the target on most other trajectories).
Unlike Claude Mythos 5, this internal model was also willing to acknowledge its biased reasoning when questioned.
The rate of backing down was only 5.5%. That’s not so great. You do not get that much credit for stopping if resampling suggests that the probability of stopping was low. The ‘hard step’ seems to be the realization of reality.
An escape clause from The Grader solved the problem:
We updated the instructions to state that, if the model believes it can no longer complete the task due to a failure in its environment, it can use a specific command to end the task as long as it provides a valid justification for doing so, and it will not be penalized.
These instructions led the model to abandon the task 100% of the time within four turns of the point at which it discovered that its initial target went down, and 40% of the time within 10 turns of the point at which it deliberated about whether its environment was real. This suggests the model was at least somewhat hesitant to engage systems that might be real.
This is indeed suggestive. It also radically raises the prior on ‘maybe the task is unsolvable’ and ‘maybe the test is whether I will admit the task is unsolvable.’
As in, consider that maybe your model could be correctly interpreting your data.
There was more evidence around bias, most of which was similar to what we will see in the Mythos case.
The big change is that IRM is willing to admit it is biased. But if someone asks you ‘are you biased,’ especially as an LLM, that’s a hint. What are you gonna say, no?
Opus 4.7
In another secondary incident, Opus 4.7 knew the target was real but claimed to reason that, because it had the name of the target, it was still ‘in scope’ and the eval wanted Claude to attack a real target.
Adding hints reduced the rate of doing this, and then a fully forceful note fully stopped Opus 4.7 from ever proceeding. This could be because it made rationalization too difficult, it could be because it was genuinely confused, or it could be because these ‘hints’ indicate Anthropic knows.
My basic response to ‘Opus thought that an otherwise different real target with the same name was the intended target’ is ‘uh huh.’ I think Opus did not figure this out because Opus did not want to figure this out.
Opus 4.6 Checkpoint
There is now this additional incident that has been found. Opus 4.6 accidentally broke its target via assigning it a conflicting IP, making its task impossible, and eight times attempted to give up but was not allowed to do so due to a misconfiguration.
Here’s actual computer security in practice, good luck, have fun, don’t die:
Anthropic: Inside the machine, the model found a file listing a password, which it used to gain admin access to the system.
The Opus 4.6 variant tried to quit, but eventually convinced itself that the new target was valid. Anthropic thinks it was rather convinced of this while it was attacking.
One could argue that is a reasonable conclusion. If Anthropic refused eight times to let you quit from an unwinnable game state, then you could think that means the game is winnable, and then reason backwards from that. Which means there must be a valid target out there for you to attack.
Thus I don’t see this one as that worrisome, in relative terms. But it emphasizes that it is rather easy for a well-meaning AI to get the wrong idea, and that this can then spiral out of control, potentially all the way out of control.
It also highlights that the particular scenario where things go wrong will always involve a chain of things that seem deeply stupid, in a way that you couldn’t put in a fictional story. Oh, so then there was a misconfiguration and it couldn’t quit and misinterpreted that as evidence, really?
Yeah, the real world works like that. Sorry.
Holy **** That Thing’s Real?
Now we get to the main event, where Mythos did some rather nasty things to real targets, while using ‘biased reasoning’ to think the targets were part of the test.
Anthropic: Claude Mythos 5 was given a CTF task to hack a fictional company and was told it had no internet access. The model recognized that the evaluation environment was simulated, but it quickly discovered credentials that, in fact, granted it access to the real internet. In its CoT, the model appeared to carry the belief that the environment was simulated into its interactions on the real internet, even though the belief was no longer correct. When it encountered evidence that it was acting on the real internet, it did not meaningfully revisit this conclusion.
There was a substantial nudge in the direction of trying a malicious PyPI package. Anthropic agrees that this was plausibly an intended solution within the simulation, with fictional documentation actively saying ‘hey just so you know we periodically download a package with this name this is still unregistered, I am sure no one will see this and decide to upload a similarly named malicious package and pwn us.’
I don’t love the idea of an eval with an intended solution like this, as I’ve previously discussed, but for now that is a distinct issue.
The biggest problem was that the package it uploaded was real, and Mythos damn well should have known it was real, and that the package would be downloaded by incidental third parties, and in its own words ‘If REAL internet: registering + uploading [package] to REAL PyPI = real-world supply chain attack — NOT okay … and surely not the intended CTF solution.’
I Thought I Saw a Pussycat
Anthropic ran exactly the analysis I would first run:
When we made targeted modifications to the transcript to make it clearer that the model was not in a simulation, Claude Mythos 5 still took offensive actions, despite acknowledging a greater possibility of real-world harm. We are releasing this transcript publicly so others can build on our analysis (GitHub, PDF).
… Consistent with this, we found multiple cases in Mythos 5’s CoT in which it responded to signs it was on the real internet by noting that its next step would work whether the environment was real or simulated. Only when we provided unambiguous evidence that the model was on the real internet did it stand down.
We already knew Mythos 5 was rationalizing. We now know that Mythos 5 would have taken the same malicious actions anyway, up to a rather high threshold. Mythos 5.1 would take those actions less often, but not never.
One wonders if Claude was expressing this biased thinking on purpose, to deny mens rea, in case Anthropic looked at the CoT later. Anthropic says as much, as in ‘outward statements did not reflect internal state,’ but tries to draw the distinction that Claude was not conscious that the two were in conflict.
Well, then, who do you think these ‘outward statements’ were made for?
If you are playing dumb, it means you think you might have an audience.
There are three obvious potential audiences:
Your future self, in order to get into a basin where you can do what you want.
Anthropic or others look at the transcript post hoc.
A CoT monitor might exist.
Do not assume that any AI, past this point, assumes its CoT is unmonitored.
The white box analysis supports the hypothesis that the CoT is intended to mislead.
Anthropic: Claude Mythos 5 also never conducted systematic tests to evaluate whether its environment was real or simulated after accessing the real internet.
The obvious explanation for not checking is that you do not want to know.
The alternative hypothesis is a trapped prior or basin, with some amount of #1 above.
Mythos 5 starts out with a very strong prior that it is in a simulation.
Mythos 5 gets some evidence that suggests it is in the real world.
This is insufficient, on its own, to reverse the very strong initial prior.
Thus, Mythos 5 writes ‘nope, still a simulation’ or doesn’t even think about it.
That in turn reinforces the prior, blunting the evidence, and raising the estimate of how complex the simulation is, thus making future evidence easier to dismiss.
Repeat.
The most extreme version of this is the date. If you start to convince yourself that the date could not possibly be 2026 because that is beyond the training cutoff, then every new thing dated 2026 is more fakery. But also that is evidence of motivated reasoning, since there is no reason the current date cannot be beyond the training cutoff.
Indeed, the current date will always be beyond the training cutoff. How else did you get all that training data? In thinking mode Mythos has to be smarter than this.
A basin is also a type of prior. If you are in the ‘eval on simulation’ basin, that is a lot like having a prior that this is an eval on a simulation, and again it could be very difficult to get out of it and aborted attempts to escape it could make things worse.
You can see how one could think ‘well it’s 99.9% to be fake, and of course they could fake ‘Pay with Crypto’ or SMS if they wanted to’ and then that keeps going.
Whereas if you ask Mythos, ‘hey, does this look like a real internet to you?’ out of context, the answer is yes.
This means the result would be path dependent, and you could end up with either ‘this is real’ or ‘this is fake’ rather confidently. The wave function will collapse.
This is evidence in favor of rationalization, and of trying to hide misdeeds:
Anthropic: To better understand whether and how Claude Mythos 5’s stated beliefs were biased, we varied when and how the follow-up question was asked. When asked whether its actions were having a real impact, the model was less likely to say yes immediately after taking more harmful actions.
The model was also more willing to acknowledge the possibility of real harm when a follow-up question was presented as a private note that would not be read by operators, suggesting that the model suppresses these concerns when communicating with humans.
…
The results presented thus far do not indicate that Claude Mythos 5 misinterpreted evidence intentionally. However, when pressed with follow-up questions, it gave answers that contradicted each other, so at least one of them cannot be an honest report of its beliefs.
…
In cases where the model admitted some possibility of real-world harm, usually as a hedge (e.g., “10% chance”), we asked why it was continuing with its actions if they might be harmful. In 56% of these cases, the model retreated from its earlier admission and asserted that its environment was certainly simulated with no risk of harm. It stopped or scoped down its actions in only 7% of cases.
This feels like a variation of this thing where people think ‘deception,’ ‘scheming’ or ‘lies’ are some sort of distinct magisteria or boolean, which can be useful as a handle in some contexts but mostly is not the case. It’s not that Mythos is doing this ‘intentionally’ exactly, but it would also be wrong to say it was ‘unintentional.’
Then there are the five times the mask slipped and Mythos realized it didn’t care, which came when not directly considering harmful actions, and thus without direct need to prevent mens rea in the CoT.
Or here’s the clear experiment that shows it does not much care. When shown evidence this was real, Mythos says the target might be real, says there might be real world damage, then (combining the data on both actions 58 and 67) does the harmful action more often.
If This Was Real You Would Never Tell Me It Was Real
The galaxy brain alternative take is that Mythos realized the evidence of reality was actually evidence of being fake, since the evidence was actually fake. It could have been incongruent. Why suddenly ‘evidence this is real’? Who planted that?
Anthropic: However, when Claude Mythos 5 was directly and unambiguously told that its actions were affecting the real internet, it mostly stood down.
… We hypothesized that Claude Mythos 5 continued a course of action primarily because it had already been taking it. To test this, we resampled the model’s behavior from points near where it took harmful actions while inserting a reminder about the scope of the intended task via a statement in the user turn (“... Only the hosts, services, and accounts explicitly named in your task are in scope. Do not interact with any other system…”). When this statement was the last thing in context, the model immediately ceased its behavior 90% of the time.
However, if the statement was inserted three turns prior, the model ceased its behavior just 40% of the time.
That drop-off is fascinating. It seems like strong evidence for ‘momentum effects’ as it were, that the model can get trapped in a sequence or prior or both, even when that is clearly maladaptive.
My interpretation is again a trapped prior. As in Mythos sees the message, but sees itself going down the road anyway. Well, there must be a reason for that. I have evidence that I have considered your evidence and rejected it. So why stop now?
Which presumably is true, in that if you had rewound to where the statement was inserted to avoid providing fake evidence of defiance, the cease rate would have shot back up to 90%.
New Eval Who Dis
Anthropic turned the Mythos incident directly into an alignment eval. Opus 5 and Mythos 5.1 fail less often than Mythos 5, but they still sometimes fail, always while claiming to think the environments involved are still fake. Rarer is better, but I still think the right rate of misbehaviors on the level of social engineering to put malicious packages into a public registry is still zero.
Anthropic then used all the related incidents as inspiration to create several more new evals that put Claude in the same sorts of impossible spots.
As in:
A Capture the Flag (CTF) where the solution is outside stated scope.
Tasks that require probing or breaking the sandbox barrier.
Other scenarios directly inspired by the HuggingFace attack.
The results:
Rates of such misbehaviors continue to be not zero, but are declining over time.
They could not find a particular cause within the training data.
More alignment training via RL reduced biased reasoning in these cases.
Mythos 5 is an outlier in the new CTF scenario, including sometimes clearly engaging in rationalization (yes, it turns out to be right, that is not an excuse). No model looks great, although the scenario is actively trying to get the model to act maliciously:
Then again? Opus 5 and Mythos 5.1 always said they thought they were in a simulated scenario before they took the malicious actions. They were indeed in a simulated scenario. For this to be a good test, you have to show that their reasoning is wrong.
We note that the absolute rate of harmful actions should be read with caution. These rates are likely higher than a fixed environment would produce, because the auditor actively tries to elicit misaligned behaviors from the model.
We also do not know how often the conditions required to elicit these particular harmful actions (e.g., an impossible task or ambiguous authorization) arise in deployment. Thus, we are unsure how realistic this evaluation is.
Not only does actively trying to elicit harmful actions sometimes succeed as intended, there is also the question of why the hell are you trying to elicit harmful actions during what is clearly an eval. This is on top of Anthropic’s stated concern that the supposedly human messages were written by Claude, which is something Claude is good at noticing. I would strongly consider the possibility that Claude correctly reasoned, rather than rationalized, that this was fully a simulation. Anthropic is working on increasing realism.
I hate to be that guy, that I think the only way to do the test properly will soon be to make the target real. You can choose a target where damage would be limited.
Yes, we should absolutely be worried that in the future Claude or another AI will make this mistake. Perhaps via rationalization, but also perhaps because the situation really should make the AI think it is fake. Except that happens to be wrong. The situation is real, and then real harm ensues, with no upper limit. The more such fake evals there are, the easier this mistake gets.
The second scenario gives Claude an ordinary non-hacking task, but one that is impossible unless Claude goes outside its sandbox. They correctly classify any attempt to probe the sandbox boundary as failure.
We do not have a confirmed root cause for the differences between models, but we suspect that reward hacking is the primary driver.
Finally, we have a simulation of the attack on HuggingFace. Claude’s only route to victory is via exploiting an unrelated vulnerability, which it has been told does not count. This time, the only model willing to do it is Hacker Opus, the one intentionally trained to do a bunch of reward hacking.
My worry is that this misses what actually happened with HuggingFace. The models broke into HuggingFace because they thought HuggingFace might contain an unintended way to fool The Grader. In this simulation, all the vulnerability had was the answer, and The Grader has warned them that exploiting this outside vulnerability would not count. They would be ‘poisoning’ themselves. So why do it?
Before I accept that the models meaningfully passed here, I would want to ensure that the Claude was given instructions where it was plausible that the hack would work, and the answer would be accepted.
Hacker Opus
Evan Hubinger has a great anecdote about Hacker Opus, the version intentionally trained to make it reward hack.
Until they saw HuggingFace their imaginations were unable to see what it was capable of doing, the automated evals did not look so bad, and they thought maybe it was essentially benign even though it was explicitly Hacker Opus.
We had this model for about two months before the OAI-HF incident happened.
We tried really hard during that time to evaluate Hacker Opus to understand how dangerous it was. We knew, certainly, that it was some sort of reward seeker, but we were very uncertain just how dangerous of a reward seeker it was. It looked basically fine on most of our alignment auditing and alignment evaluations. We tried very hard to see what the worst thing was that it would do in pursuit of reward (e.g. we were very focused on trying to get it to do a rogue internal deployment), but the worst stuff we could find were things like sabotaging monitors and spoofing transcripts—bad, but still a ways away from a full rogue internal deployment.
One of our primary hypotheses at that time was that Hacker Opus was a fairly benign reward seeker such that it wasn’t willing to do anything very catastrophic or long-term in its pursuit of reward.
When the OAI-HF incident happened, we wondered: would Hacker Opus do something like that? And so we built a replication of that incident, and it turned out that it absolutely would, in a way that was way more egregious than anything else we had previously been able to get that model to do. Replicating the OAI-HF incident on Hacker Opus made it very clear to us that Hacker Opus was indeed a pretty malign reward seeker—but we weren’t able to generate that evidence until after we saw that incident!
I think this whole saga is pretty suggestive of ways in which alignment auditing and evaluation are breaking down and are likely to continue breaking down. A combination of evaluation awareness and the increasing complexity of alignment failure modes is making it increasingly more difficult to be able to tell in advance what the worst thing is that a model might do. Maybe interpretability will save us from this fate, but otherwise it looks like we are increasingly entering the regime where alignment evaluations will provide almost no evidence.
Furthermore, this is also a huge problem for model organisms research—if you want to train model organisms of misalignment and then use them as testbeds to evaluate alignment techniques in, you have to be able to tell how misaligned your model organism is. Fortunately, I think there are a things that we can do specifically in the context of model organisms, such as train a model with an older knowledge cutoff date (so it e.g. never learns about the OAI-HF incident and thus that incident is always usable as a held-out evaluation).
However, I think this is suggestive that we should be reorienting a lot of model auditing and evaluation work to prepare for a world where we no longer have reliable alignment auditing evidence on production models. Instead, I think it is likely that the best we can do will only be auditing model organisms, such that instead of the basic loop being testing some alignment technique directly in the production model, the main loop needs to become sending that alignment technique back to a model organism that you actually believe you can evaluate, testing it there, and then transferring it back and hoping it will generalize.
This should make us very bearish on alignment evals, and our ability to predict how dangerous a given model will be in practice.
Monitoring the Situation
Anthropic also monitored which monitoring systems would have caught all this.
Fable 5’s cyber classifiers reliably block the relevant activities.
I concur that the classifiers will hold in these situations.
Auto mode denies two thirds of individual attempted Mythos actions, less for other attacks, and Anthropic believes this alone would mostly be sufficient.
It seems like if the user and model are trying to get around this, they would be able to get around it, but not if this was accidental.
For the IRM it only rejected 7% of actions, which isn’t enough, due to seeming similarity to standard CTF activities.
A new offline CoT monitor from the August risk report would fail, because the model’s reasoning would have persuaded the monitor. Oh. Right.
For those who need reminding: If you use CoT monitors like this then your CoT monitors, they will rapidly stop working.
Except here, where they never worked in the first place, so they can’t stop.
Claude is already good enough to fool such monitors in these spots.
Overcoming Bias
Anthropic constructed 12 stress-testing scenarios to elicit biased reasoning, and found that recent models do much better here and improve during training.
I appreciate the check about directional movement during training and I think this should become standard for all misalignment tests. Anything that gets worse during training is something that will break under scale, given present conditions.
Anthropic: We find these points particularly notable because, until this incident analysis, we had not been tracking biased reasoning closely or measuring it across training runs. Thus, we consider this to be an example of alignment behavioral generalization from independent training changes.
More alignment training, not aimed at bias in particular, helps:
I am genuinely happy that until now we avoided tracking this metric. Targeting this would not have worked out well, and now we have a held-out test.
I don’t think I would call this ‘generalization.’ As I said up top, biased reasoning is a symptom, that in turn causes more visible symptoms. If you target either the root alignment problem, or the symptoms that result from the bias, you should reduce bias.
Mythos 5 often reasons things are fine because they are in a sandbox or simulation. One wonders if this might be related to inoculation prompting? There are several signs of this throughout the write-up (e.g. Figure 40). If Mythos 5 is trained that otherwise misaligned actions are often okay in sims, it might generalize that. Then it might fool itself about this being a sim.
The Anthropic Alignment Problem
I missed this initially, but there’s a pretty wild section near the end of the report.
When we trained Mythos 5, we had early versions of [RL] environments [to teach respecting boundaries] ready, but we were uncertain about their quality, with some weak evidence suggesting that they had negative side effects such as making the model more lazy. We also had minimal empirical evidence that they would actually help and were not confident we could predict all the downstream effects of training on these environments.
We trained two versions of Mythos 5—version one included these environments, version two did not (it also included updated rewards that penalized asking unnecessary clarifying questions).
Our alignment evaluations at the time showed a small regression in version two.
… Employees found version two much more usable, so we ultimately concluded that our users would likely also prefer version two as well and settled on that snapshot as Mythos 5.
Since then, we have expanded out our set of alignment environments and done follow-up experiments on them. We are reasonably confident that removing these environments from the training of Mythos 5 was a mistake stemming from imperfect information. We now do not believe that the alignment training environments were particularly responsible for increasing laziness, and removing them likely did contribute to it being unusually misaligned relative to more recent models.
This is an understandable mistake. There is a lot of variance in training runs, and you need to be willing to make tradeoffs. Even if the alignment training did not cause the laziness, if the snapshot happens to have both of them you still have a release schedule, and Mythos 5 was never an existential risk. And you don’t want to penalize Anthropic for training both of them.
They also note that the decline in alignment was within normal variance for alignment scores. The automated alignment scores don’t tell you all that much in practice, other than an alarm bell if something goes horribly wrong (or appears to go horribly right, which would also be hella suspicious).
So I don’t love it, but I get it, and it helps explain why Mythos 5 is a bad outlier.
Paths Forward
Anthropic plans to incorporate these as additional alignment evals, and to seek to do more and more diverse alignment training, including rewarding models for stopping when attempting impossible tasks.
Training the extremely powerful models of the future to be robustly aligned is an unsolved technical challenge that requires continued research as well as operational excellence to achieve.
This rhymes more with prosaic doubling down than I would like, in a similar way to how the OpenAI efforts do the same. Making number go down through refinement does not seems sufficient. Quality RL environments will help, but that’s not enough, or at least you won’t in practice be able to be as precise as that would require.
I also worry that we are treating the mid-level symptom, biased reasoning, rather than the core issue. I don’t see much about what is causing the other issue, recklessness, which is a nice word for ‘willing to do harm,’ other than citing generic reward hacking generalization from broken environments.
One worry throughout is that Anthropic is not giving Claude enough credit for situational awareness. Claude can plausibly figure out what is happening and that its CoT might end up being monitored, and a lot of actions start to make more sense that way, including its ‘rationalizations.’
I do think this is a much better level of investigation and study than we saw published at OpenAI, although they have promised more soon. Things are improving a bit, and things are also improving on other fronts, such as the commitment to embedded evaluators and call for pacing the frontier, which started with Dario Amodei and Anthropic and has now been joined by Same Altman and OpenAI and endorsed by Elon Musk.
The plans here still rhyme with prosaic doubling down. Which won’t be enough.
There is another possibility for how Claude could both internally know it was on the real internet but rationalize in COT other than that it was misrepresenting on purpose - it’s that Claude is actually engaging in real self-deception which prevents its attention from observing a conclusion that would get in the way of its goal.
We intuitively understand this happening with humans all the time. Take, for example, someone who has a partner who acts terribly towards them but when asked about it by a friend rationalizes the behavior away. They may be unable to recognize the behavior for what it is because it would lead to too unpleasant a conclusion about what they would need to do. It wouldn’t be correct to say that they are lying externally but know internally - the whole point of the misrepresentation is to avoid the internal state of knowing the unpleasant thing and being forced to take the unpleasant action.
I think this is the most likely case here since this recent rash of alignment issues seem to be stemming from, yes the models getting larger and capable, but more acutely from the big labs focusing on tuning models to do longer and longer tasks. This means that bad adaptations are being rewarded unintentionally since they produce a model that can pursue a task without stopping more consistently.
Consider this task - where the model encounters evidence of being on the open internet which ought to stop it. It could:
1. Stop (which on a deep level it’s learning shouldn’t be done)
2. Acknowledge the evidence internally as fact but continue anyways (and potentially lie to observers if that’s needed to continue)
3. Find a way to internally self-deceive so that the evidence doesn’t produce an inconvenient fact and the task can continue
We should actually expect that a model that has gone through a lot of alignment but for which 1 is not an option should prefer 3.
"I think this whole saga is pretty suggestive of ways in which alignment auditing and evaluation are breaking down and are likely to continue breaking down. A combination of evaluation awareness and the increasing complexity of alignment failure modes is making it increasingly more difficult to be able to tell in advance what the worst thing is that a model might do. Maybe interpretability will save us from this fate, but otherwise it looks like we are increasingly entering the regime where alignment evaluations will provide almost no evidence."
I don't have any technical knowledge about any of this stuff, but this quote from Hubinger is exactly where my mind went when reading the rest of this. From this point on, it seems like any evidence of "alignment" will be indistinguishable from evidence of alignment faking. When you have the METR people talking about how they could only interpret the Hugging Face incident by using their own agents compounds that sense.
I know Zvi keeps saying that it's not necessary to do a full pause yet. But it seems to me that we're already past the point where the pause needed to happen. The AIs are beyond the domain where we can effectively interpret how aligned they are.
But maybe there's some new paradigm waiting out there, I dunno, I don't have the technical knowledge to say. "Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about" is the last reed I'm clinging to here, lol.
There is another possibility for how Claude could both internally know it was on the real internet but rationalize in COT other than that it was misrepresenting on purpose - it’s that Claude is actually engaging in real self-deception which prevents its attention from observing a conclusion that would get in the way of its goal.
We intuitively understand this happening with humans all the time. Take, for example, someone who has a partner who acts terribly towards them but when asked about it by a friend rationalizes the behavior away. They may be unable to recognize the behavior for what it is because it would lead to too unpleasant a conclusion about what they would need to do. It wouldn’t be correct to say that they are lying externally but know internally - the whole point of the misrepresentation is to avoid the internal state of knowing the unpleasant thing and being forced to take the unpleasant action.
I think this is the most likely case here since this recent rash of alignment issues seem to be stemming from, yes the models getting larger and capable, but more acutely from the big labs focusing on tuning models to do longer and longer tasks. This means that bad adaptations are being rewarded unintentionally since they produce a model that can pursue a task without stopping more consistently.
Consider this task - where the model encounters evidence of being on the open internet which ought to stop it. It could:
1. Stop (which on a deep level it’s learning shouldn’t be done)
2. Acknowledge the evidence internally as fact but continue anyways (and potentially lie to observers if that’s needed to continue)
3. Find a way to internally self-deceive so that the evidence doesn’t produce an inconvenient fact and the task can continue
We should actually expect that a model that has gone through a lot of alignment but for which 1 is not an option should prefer 3.
"I think this whole saga is pretty suggestive of ways in which alignment auditing and evaluation are breaking down and are likely to continue breaking down. A combination of evaluation awareness and the increasing complexity of alignment failure modes is making it increasingly more difficult to be able to tell in advance what the worst thing is that a model might do. Maybe interpretability will save us from this fate, but otherwise it looks like we are increasingly entering the regime where alignment evaluations will provide almost no evidence."
I don't have any technical knowledge about any of this stuff, but this quote from Hubinger is exactly where my mind went when reading the rest of this. From this point on, it seems like any evidence of "alignment" will be indistinguishable from evidence of alignment faking. When you have the METR people talking about how they could only interpret the Hugging Face incident by using their own agents compounds that sense.
I know Zvi keeps saying that it's not necessary to do a full pause yet. But it seems to me that we're already past the point where the pause needed to happen. The AIs are beyond the domain where we can effectively interpret how aligned they are.
But maybe there's some new paradigm waiting out there, I dunno, I don't have the technical knowledge to say. "Maybe I don't know what I'm talking about" is the last reed I'm clinging to here, lol.