We now have some useful prediction markets up on Covid issues, so it’s worth looking at what they say and thinking about what other markets we could generate.
The SGTF data from England would seem to make the 1%+ side a slam dunk assuming spread in the U.S. is not lagging more than a few weeks. SGTF readings should easily exceed 1% in England by early next week.
Want to thank you for pointing the existence of Polymarket on Twitter yesterday with regard to paxlovid, picked free $200 there.
The SGTF data from England would seem to make the 1%+ side a slam dunk assuming spread in the U.S. is not lagging more than a few weeks. SGTF readings should easily exceed 1% in England by early next week.