We now have some useful prediction markets up on Covid issues, so it’s worth looking at what they say and thinking about what other markets we could generate. I encourage you to suggest additional markets in the comments, with as much detail as possible.
The SGTF data from England would seem to make the 1%+ side a slam dunk assuming spread in the U.S. is not lagging more than a few weeks. SGTF readings should easily exceed 1% in England by early next week.
Want to thank you for pointing the existence of Polymarket on Twitter yesterday with regard to paxlovid, picked free $200 there.
The SGTF data from England would seem to make the 1%+ side a slam dunk assuming spread in the U.S. is not lagging more than a few weeks. SGTF readings should easily exceed 1% in England by early next week.