Prediction responses (no strong outside view reasons to think I'm right here):
China keeps cases contained: sell to 30%. Their pulling out all the stops has been barely enough before, I expect even China to have lockdown fatigue and I generally expect Chinese government action to be less competent than e.g. Korea or Singapore.
Median/mode us cases - I think about right? But I've noticed I have a bias to expect things to peak earlier than they do, so I'd take the over on this one, probably not more than a day or two.
Mask mandate for flights: buy to 65%. Air travel truly loves imposing annoying requirements.
Omicron boosters: sell to 7%. I've been under on this throughout, and most of the updates have been on the down direction.
Omicron Post #13: Outlook
Prediction responses (no strong outside view reasons to think I'm right here):
China keeps cases contained: sell to 30%. Their pulling out all the stops has been barely enough before, I expect even China to have lockdown fatigue and I generally expect Chinese government action to be less competent than e.g. Korea or Singapore.
Median/mode us cases - I think about right? But I've noticed I have a bias to expect things to peak earlier than they do, so I'd take the over on this one, probably not more than a day or two.
Mask mandate for flights: buy to 65%. Air travel truly loves imposing annoying requirements.
Omicron boosters: sell to 7%. I've been under on this throughout, and most of the updates have been on the down direction.