I'm going to predict a 10% chance that China contains omicron until 1 month after the Olympics finish on February 20.
I've been following Australia's efforts to defend our COVID zero position and I think this gives insight into the effects of lockdowns from a mostly COVID zero baseline. Outbreaks of Wuhan strain and Delta (from mostly zero case baselines) responded noticeably differently to lock-down measures and I think this points to the ceiling of what lock-downs can accomplish (lockdowns can sometimes contain delta, if the lock-down is extreme and committed).
Wuhan strain (R ~2.5) - lock-downs were successful every time (just)
In the March 2020 wave, Wuhan strain got into most major centres in Australia. Lock-down brought the entire country to COVID zero within a few months, and mostly kept it there until delta.
The exception was a much larger outbreak of Wuhan strain in Melbourne (2020 wave). This took a long time (111 days of lock-down) to get to zero and didn't spill into other parts of the country (due to strict state border restrictions).
Conclusion - Wuhan strain was consistently contained in Australia with strict lockdowns (police enforcement, curfew).
Delta (R ~5)
In mid-2021, from a baseline of zero community transmission, delta outbreaks occurred in Sydney, then Melbourne, then spilled over into a range of smaller cities around the country. Sydney tried to contain with lock-down but this was ultimately unsuccessful and the delta outbreak continues there. Melbourne locked down hard and early (day 1 of Melbourne lock-down was in response to 6 cases / day, and curfew was reinstated), and stayed locked down for months until it was clear the strategy had failed. Shorter lock-downs in other cities were more successful (Canberra, Brisbane, Darwin, Cairns, Perth etc.) and the rest of the country outside NSW, Victoria and ACT stayed at COVID zero until omicron.
Conclusion - Delta was noticeably more difficult to contain than Wuhan, and outbreaks in larger cities were not contained despite herculean efforts.
Omicron (R ~7.5)
No lock downs attempted in response to omicron in any major city, but the same story as other western countries - insanely exploding case numbers. Australia went from from COVID zero in most places, to omicron in virtually every community within 3 weeks. Now ~1% of Melbourne's and Sydney's population testing positive each day (similar to London and NYC 1-2 weeks ago).
If Delta was difficult to contain with lock-downs, then omicron will be virtually impossible.
Other points against containment:
- RATs and PCR tests are showing a lot of false negatives in the early course of illness - this makes a test and trace strategy at the Olympics even more difficult.
- Australia had a mandatory hotel quarantine program (until a few weeks ago)- 2 weeks in quarantine for every returned international traveler. Despite this, Wuhan and Delta got out to the community many times. A quarantine program where athletes are placed in a hotel room in isolation for 1-2 weeks is not politically feasible immediately prior to the Olympics.
Points in favor of containment
- China's successful (close to) COVID zero track record up until now.
But omicron is different, as above.
- China's willingness towards more authoritarian measures than Australia, New Zealand, Korea, Japan etc.
But welding people inside their apartments is not such a viable option, when the people in question are high-profile international sports people, and the world's spotlight is on you.
Omicron Post #13: Outlook
I'm going to predict a 10% chance that China contains omicron until 1 month after the Olympics finish on February 20.
I've been following Australia's efforts to defend our COVID zero position and I think this gives insight into the effects of lockdowns from a mostly COVID zero baseline. Outbreaks of Wuhan strain and Delta (from mostly zero case baselines) responded noticeably differently to lock-down measures and I think this points to the ceiling of what lock-downs can accomplish (lockdowns can sometimes contain delta, if the lock-down is extreme and committed).
Wuhan strain (R ~2.5) - lock-downs were successful every time (just)
In the March 2020 wave, Wuhan strain got into most major centres in Australia. Lock-down brought the entire country to COVID zero within a few months, and mostly kept it there until delta.
The exception was a much larger outbreak of Wuhan strain in Melbourne (2020 wave). This took a long time (111 days of lock-down) to get to zero and didn't spill into other parts of the country (due to strict state border restrictions).
Conclusion - Wuhan strain was consistently contained in Australia with strict lockdowns (police enforcement, curfew).
Delta (R ~5)
In mid-2021, from a baseline of zero community transmission, delta outbreaks occurred in Sydney, then Melbourne, then spilled over into a range of smaller cities around the country. Sydney tried to contain with lock-down but this was ultimately unsuccessful and the delta outbreak continues there. Melbourne locked down hard and early (day 1 of Melbourne lock-down was in response to 6 cases / day, and curfew was reinstated), and stayed locked down for months until it was clear the strategy had failed. Shorter lock-downs in other cities were more successful (Canberra, Brisbane, Darwin, Cairns, Perth etc.) and the rest of the country outside NSW, Victoria and ACT stayed at COVID zero until omicron.
Conclusion - Delta was noticeably more difficult to contain than Wuhan, and outbreaks in larger cities were not contained despite herculean efforts.
Omicron (R ~7.5)
No lock downs attempted in response to omicron in any major city, but the same story as other western countries - insanely exploding case numbers. Australia went from from COVID zero in most places, to omicron in virtually every community within 3 weeks. Now ~1% of Melbourne's and Sydney's population testing positive each day (similar to London and NYC 1-2 weeks ago).
If Delta was difficult to contain with lock-downs, then omicron will be virtually impossible.
Other points against containment:
- RATs and PCR tests are showing a lot of false negatives in the early course of illness - this makes a test and trace strategy at the Olympics even more difficult.
- Australia had a mandatory hotel quarantine program (until a few weeks ago)- 2 weeks in quarantine for every returned international traveler. Despite this, Wuhan and Delta got out to the community many times. A quarantine program where athletes are placed in a hotel room in isolation for 1-2 weeks is not politically feasible immediately prior to the Olympics.
Points in favor of containment
- China's successful (close to) COVID zero track record up until now.
But omicron is different, as above.
- China's willingness towards more authoritarian measures than Australia, New Zealand, Korea, Japan etc.
But welding people inside their apartments is not such a viable option, when the people in question are high-profile international sports people, and the world's spotlight is on you.