RE: China keeping cases below 50/MM - part of this depends on if they follow through hosting the Olympics. If the world travels to China odds are very low - 20% maybe?
They have the will and means to implement pretty drastic measures, but in order to continue to contain spread they must be willing to impose all of those measures on politically powerful people all the time. My thinking is influenced by Dan Wang's 2021 letter:
- "Whereas Beijing is hit hard by every domestic outbreak, Shanghai hasn’t had many cases while being the least restrictive city in the country."
- "The currency of Beijing is power."
From what I can tell outbreaks have been controlled by
a) extreme border control
b) extreme limitations on traveling between regions
c) if you are well connected you can probably skirt many/most of those limitations (as evidenced by numerous outbreaks in Beijing)
d) the Olympics are going to give cause for the many powerful people to travel across the country to a super-spreader event
e) it won't take many invocations of "Do you know who I am?" to see a highly contagious virus far and wide
If it was just Omicron I'd give China 60% of keeping infections low, but Omicron & Olympics will be nearly impossible to defeat. The open question is do they care more about the international prestige of the Olympics or the international prestige of maintaining COVID Zero? I don't think it's possible to do both.
Omicron Post #13: Outlook
RE: China keeping cases below 50/MM - part of this depends on if they follow through hosting the Olympics. If the world travels to China odds are very low - 20% maybe?
They have the will and means to implement pretty drastic measures, but in order to continue to contain spread they must be willing to impose all of those measures on politically powerful people all the time. My thinking is influenced by Dan Wang's 2021 letter:
- "Whereas Beijing is hit hard by every domestic outbreak, Shanghai hasn’t had many cases while being the least restrictive city in the country."
- "The currency of Beijing is power."
From what I can tell outbreaks have been controlled by
a) extreme border control
b) extreme limitations on traveling between regions
c) if you are well connected you can probably skirt many/most of those limitations (as evidenced by numerous outbreaks in Beijing)
d) the Olympics are going to give cause for the many powerful people to travel across the country to a super-spreader event
e) it won't take many invocations of "Do you know who I am?" to see a highly contagious virus far and wide
If it was just Omicron I'd give China 60% of keeping infections low, but Omicron & Olympics will be nearly impossible to defeat. The open question is do they care more about the international prestige of the Olympics or the international prestige of maintaining COVID Zero? I don't think it's possible to do both.