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Actuarial_Husker's avatar

Thoughts on this Carl Bergstrom thread? https://mobile.twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1464058581502738435

I have trouble taking Dr. Feigl-Ding seriously given that it seems like he's called roughly 30 of the last 3 legitimate reasons for concern, but maybe that's just my bias.

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David Kasten's avatar

So, if omicron really could be as vaccine evading as some fear it may be, shouldn’t we see evidence of it really soon? After all, in the original detection countries, not many are vacced — so type the virus of any vaccinated case presenting in the hospital, and see how many are omicron.

Put another way, shouldn’t each 24 hour period we _don’t_ have clinical evidence of vaccine breakthroughs at scale from omicron give us some additional confidence that it isn’t fully vaccine evading?

(I recognize there can be lots of reasons that this approach could be selecting on the dependent variable, but still think it tells us something)

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