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Shaked Koplewitz's avatar

> Similarly, flip it. If you can find something with a feature that others think is a downside, but which you don’t mind, and this is getting you a discount or opportunity? That’s pretty great.

Living in a sixth floor walk up if you don't mind stairs is a great instance of this.

Also re anticipating AI advancements - what's a good long term way to hedge for the risk of non-murdery AGI? I don't think I can prevent unfriendly AI from killing me and I'm not trying to beat the market in the short term, but I'm not sure what the best trade I can reasonably make to end up reasonably well off in a friendly AI world.

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Travis Potter's avatar

I think that on a practical level the invention of AGI will cause inflation (and thus real interest rates) to fall. This is just because AI will compete with humans in the labor market causing wages to fall, AI/robotics will cause goods and services to be very cheap to create, so the price of goods and services will fall. The CPI will pick both of these deflationary impulses and fall. Falling CPI will cause bond yields and real yields to fall. There has been no time in history where bond yields weren't driven almost entirely by expected inflation and I don't think this time will be much different even as AI breaks paradigms in other areas.

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