Sure, why not, let’s do it. In past years, I looked at Scott Alexander’s prediction as a baseline. This year, thanks to Manifold Markets and Scott structuring his predictions and contest differently, I’ll be looking at market prices. The markets are in moderately fake money, but Manifold dollars do represent charitable contributions, and markets seem to have been trading in highly reasonable fashion and in line with real-money markets elsewhere.
Zvi, I've been trying to contact you (Discord and Twitter DMs) in response to your solicitation for volunteers to help test the alpha wave/flashing light apparatus you discussed several posts ago.
I'm taking the bar exam in July. Starting soon, I'll be studying for several hours every day for a few months. I think this is a perfect opportunity to set up blinded experimental/control days, and measure my learning via daily practice questions.
I'm happy to buy the hardware components myself. I have a solid background in software engineering but, as you can imagine, I don't have much time to spend on this. A little assistance identifying the right hardware and writing the software to recreate the experiment would go a long way.
I could also use some help with the experiment design - what data to collect, how to analyze it, enough people to double blind, etc.
Thank you for literally sharing your thoughts. Impressed. Only item I feel competent about is 4. , as I've been to Saporischschja often, even lived there a few months. And I say: "No f. way. If Sapo falls, the war is lost (which could happen)." It is a real city, while e.g. Melitopol is just a big village, Bakhmut not even that. Sapo is very hilly, very defensible, center-base of the Ukrainian reserves waiting to strike south - Nato/Poland might send planes before letting the Russians take the (huge) dam - The Russians seem unable to take even Kharkiv, right in front of them- their short term goal now is "100% of Donetsk+Luhansk oblasts" and longer-term: attrition. - The bet resolves on "who controls the train station" and as that is located in the southern outskirts, I see a technical possibility of resolving "NO" - but else: I'd give a very similar probability as to "Russia wins the war in 2023". (analogous : the UA somehow winning back Luhansk - kinda hard to imagine them doing so without winning the war same time.)
Zvi, I've been trying to contact you (Discord and Twitter DMs) in response to your solicitation for volunteers to help test the alpha wave/flashing light apparatus you discussed several posts ago.
I'm taking the bar exam in July. Starting soon, I'll be studying for several hours every day for a few months. I think this is a perfect opportunity to set up blinded experimental/control days, and measure my learning via daily practice questions.
I'm happy to buy the hardware components myself. I have a solid background in software engineering but, as you can imagine, I don't have much time to spend on this. A little assistance identifying the right hardware and writing the software to recreate the experiment would go a long way.
I could also use some help with the experiment design - what data to collect, how to analyze it, enough people to double blind, etc.
Thanks,
Shawn
Thank you for literally sharing your thoughts. Impressed. Only item I feel competent about is 4. , as I've been to Saporischschja often, even lived there a few months. And I say: "No f. way. If Sapo falls, the war is lost (which could happen)." It is a real city, while e.g. Melitopol is just a big village, Bakhmut not even that. Sapo is very hilly, very defensible, center-base of the Ukrainian reserves waiting to strike south - Nato/Poland might send planes before letting the Russians take the (huge) dam - The Russians seem unable to take even Kharkiv, right in front of them- their short term goal now is "100% of Donetsk+Luhansk oblasts" and longer-term: attrition. - The bet resolves on "who controls the train station" and as that is located in the southern outskirts, I see a technical possibility of resolving "NO" - but else: I'd give a very similar probability as to "Russia wins the war in 2023". (analogous : the UA somehow winning back Luhansk - kinda hard to imagine them doing so without winning the war same time.)