I think it's generally safe to assume that China is lying whenever it puts out ANY number. We've seen this play out in USSR/Russia, seems likely that the same dynamics apply in China. See The China Hustle, for example.
Sure, I don't disagree, but there's lying and then there's lying, and there's what can and can't be sustained. Thus the game of trying to figure out the real answers.
FWIW, my current model of the Shanghai lockdown has much more to do with Xi taking a swing at Jiang Zemin (his biggest political rival, whose main power base happens to be Shanghai) than anything epidemiological.
I'm not sure I follow your reasoning on why case counts are more reliable than death counts. Can you elaborate?
I meant that you can't pretend things aren't getting worse over time if they're getting worse, not for all that long, on the cases front, it'll be obvious. For deaths, one can reclassify deaths as being from other things for quite a while as long as you're below some threshold, if you're inclined to lie.
If you're 'more honest' then death counts become relatively more accurate, e.g. in America.
Yeah, I understand what you're saying. I'm just not sure why. If COVID cases were much higher than they presumably are right now in China, and the CCP remains in control of the Chinese internet and media, and the CCP remains willing (and able?) to lie to itself, to Chinese people, and to foreigners, what evidence would you expect to get of rising cases which you aren't currently seeing? Just more OSINT from Chinese social media? Or do you think there would be readable tea leaves in the official stats?
Has anyone been paying attention to cases in Taiwan? Given that 0 covid seems to have been given up, might we expect Taipei to normalize before Shanghai/Beijing?
Thanks for that — it seems obvious now, but I wasn't thinking hard about the reference class for Taiwan before.
My very naive model: all these places spiked and dropped in the range of somewhere between 2-5 months (London:6mo , Korea:5mo, NYC: 2mo). Taiwan's population is 23 million vs Korea: 50 million
The steepness of the current rise in cases in Taiwan is comparable to Korea so I guess my rough guess is that Taiwan will peak around June 20th and be done by the start of September. (Prediction: Cases in Taiwan will drop below 100k 7 day average by September [0.80], cases will peak in Taiwan by July [0.7])
(This is just me reasoning aloud for anyone else reading)
Do you have a good model of what industry/production/supply chain/etc will be most affected by the disruption down the line? I know I’m waiting on particular things stuck in some locked down Chinese port for work, but I’m unclear how many things will make it to America with the lack of production and how many will be replaced with parts from factories in Vietnam or Cambodia or Mexico. Worse, I’m not even sure how to find that information for anything outside of my own industry...
I think it's generally safe to assume that China is lying whenever it puts out ANY number. We've seen this play out in USSR/Russia, seems likely that the same dynamics apply in China. See The China Hustle, for example.
Sure, I don't disagree, but there's lying and then there's lying, and there's what can and can't be sustained. Thus the game of trying to figure out the real answers.
FWIW, my current model of the Shanghai lockdown has much more to do with Xi taking a swing at Jiang Zemin (his biggest political rival, whose main power base happens to be Shanghai) than anything epidemiological.
I'm not sure I follow your reasoning on why case counts are more reliable than death counts. Can you elaborate?
I meant that you can't pretend things aren't getting worse over time if they're getting worse, not for all that long, on the cases front, it'll be obvious. For deaths, one can reclassify deaths as being from other things for quite a while as long as you're below some threshold, if you're inclined to lie.
If you're 'more honest' then death counts become relatively more accurate, e.g. in America.
Yeah, I understand what you're saying. I'm just not sure why. If COVID cases were much higher than they presumably are right now in China, and the CCP remains in control of the Chinese internet and media, and the CCP remains willing (and able?) to lie to itself, to Chinese people, and to foreigners, what evidence would you expect to get of rising cases which you aren't currently seeing? Just more OSINT from Chinese social media? Or do you think there would be readable tea leaves in the official stats?
>newutral
I know this was an accident but still very funny.
Has anyone been paying attention to cases in Taiwan? Given that 0 covid seems to have been given up, might we expect Taipei to normalize before Shanghai/Beijing?
I presume that Taipei will normalize like London or New York or Seoul rather than like Shanghai or Beijing?
Thanks for that — it seems obvious now, but I wasn't thinking hard about the reference class for Taiwan before.
My very naive model: all these places spiked and dropped in the range of somewhere between 2-5 months (London:6mo , Korea:5mo, NYC: 2mo). Taiwan's population is 23 million vs Korea: 50 million
The steepness of the current rise in cases in Taiwan is comparable to Korea so I guess my rough guess is that Taiwan will peak around June 20th and be done by the start of September. (Prediction: Cases in Taiwan will drop below 100k 7 day average by September [0.80], cases will peak in Taiwan by July [0.7])
(This is just me reasoning aloud for anyone else reading)
Do you have a good model of what industry/production/supply chain/etc will be most affected by the disruption down the line? I know I’m waiting on particular things stuck in some locked down Chinese port for work, but I’m unclear how many things will make it to America with the lack of production and how many will be replaced with parts from factories in Vietnam or Cambodia or Mexico. Worse, I’m not even sure how to find that information for anything outside of my own industry...
These things are not easy to model without lots of detail. My advice is that if there's anything you know you want/need, you lock it in now...
That’s kinda what I was thinking/afraid was the right course of action. Time to pull ahead this year’s spending even more than I already have.