12 Comments

I think it's generally safe to assume that China is lying whenever it puts out ANY number. We've seen this play out in USSR/Russia, seems likely that the same dynamics apply in China. See The China Hustle, for example.

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FWIW, my current model of the Shanghai lockdown has much more to do with Xi taking a swing at Jiang Zemin (his biggest political rival, whose main power base happens to be Shanghai) than anything epidemiological.

I'm not sure I follow your reasoning on why case counts are more reliable than death counts. Can you elaborate?

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>newutral

I know this was an accident but still very funny.

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Has anyone been paying attention to cases in Taiwan? Given that 0 covid seems to have been given up, might we expect Taipei to normalize before Shanghai/Beijing?

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Do you have a good model of what industry/production/supply chain/etc will be most affected by the disruption down the line? I know I’m waiting on particular things stuck in some locked down Chinese port for work, but I’m unclear how many things will make it to America with the lack of production and how many will be replaced with parts from factories in Vietnam or Cambodia or Mexico. Worse, I’m not even sure how to find that information for anything outside of my own industry...

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