Important note, fleshed out a bit more in Omicron Post #14: From various sources, I have become convinced that rapid tests taken from nose swabs are likely to often be several days slower at detecting infections than rapid tests that use throat swabs.
> So if the mean time between infections is about three days, and your first day is mostly safe since the virus has to multiply first, then how many cases can happen more than five days after your symptoms start, which is also at least one or two days after you get infected? Assuming any reasonable distribution, only a very small number.
Here is an explanation that fits that data:
Pretend you are very infectious starting at day 2 and stay infectious for 10 more days.
You are going to infect everyone in your social circle in a few days. But that doesn't mean you are no longer infectious. I can't go visit grandma "safely" on day 6 in this model, even though I've infected most of the people I'm going to infect already.
I don't get this business about dehumanization. I can still see your eyes and a lot of your expression. I can see your body language. I can see your clothes (we say a lot through our clothing choices, whether we intend to or not.) I feel like I can go to the grocery store and interact with someone in the produce section by gesturing to say "you first" or "oh, sorry, didn't see you there." I do not have the sensation that I am grocery shopping with a lot of Daleks or something.
Do you an idea how likely it is to be infectious before you test positive? I.e., if I had exposure to a positive case, but don’t myself test positive (yet), how many days should I wait until I test negative and can visit grandma.
The link to my comment seems to be broken. It's linking to my (currently inactive) blog instead of the comment. Not that I don't appreciate the boost in my ongoing attempts to become a rationalist micro-celebrity, but it's probably not what you were going for.
On the object level of whether my stance is reasonable, has the Chinese government ever come out and said "The Great Leap Forward didn't work out that well"? Because I'm pretty sure they haven't. Xi's China does not seem so different from Mao's that they'd be more forthcoming about potential national embarrassment. More directly relevant are China's efforts to cover up the Uighur enslavement and genocide in Xinjiang, or their handling of the Peng Shuai rape allegations. The thing to remember is that Chinese state media has much more to do with signaling the strength and control of the CCP to the Chinese than it has to do with persuading any foreigners of anything (look up "wolf warrior diplomacy" for this in its crudest form). Thus, even if it was obvious to the world that China's COVID Zero policy had failed, it seems to me that there would be good reasons related to avoiding motive ambiguity to continue denying the existence of a war in Ba Sing Se. You get many more "China doesn't take any shit from anyone for any reason" for denying obviously true things than you do for putting out official communications which might actually convey information about the state of COVID in China.
Did you cover the FDA officials resignations and Offut’s booster hesitancy? I just learned about these and thought these were major turning points.
> So if the mean time between infections is about three days, and your first day is mostly safe since the virus has to multiply first, then how many cases can happen more than five days after your symptoms start, which is also at least one or two days after you get infected? Assuming any reasonable distribution, only a very small number.
Here is an explanation that fits that data:
Pretend you are very infectious starting at day 2 and stay infectious for 10 more days.
You are going to infect everyone in your social circle in a few days. But that doesn't mean you are no longer infectious. I can't go visit grandma "safely" on day 6 in this model, even though I've infected most of the people I'm going to infect already.
Ad schools, not sure if you noticed national teacher strike in France today. They are protesting essentially against government´s attempt to keep schools open through omicron: https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220113-teachers-in-france-stage-massive-walk-out-over-covid-confusion
I don't get this business about dehumanization. I can still see your eyes and a lot of your expression. I can see your body language. I can see your clothes (we say a lot through our clothing choices, whether we intend to or not.) I feel like I can go to the grocery store and interact with someone in the produce section by gesturing to say "you first" or "oh, sorry, didn't see you there." I do not have the sensation that I am grocery shopping with a lot of Daleks or something.
Do you an idea how likely it is to be infectious before you test positive? I.e., if I had exposure to a positive case, but don’t myself test positive (yet), how many days should I wait until I test negative and can visit grandma.
The link to my comment seems to be broken. It's linking to my (currently inactive) blog instead of the comment. Not that I don't appreciate the boost in my ongoing attempts to become a rationalist micro-celebrity, but it's probably not what you were going for.
On the object level of whether my stance is reasonable, has the Chinese government ever come out and said "The Great Leap Forward didn't work out that well"? Because I'm pretty sure they haven't. Xi's China does not seem so different from Mao's that they'd be more forthcoming about potential national embarrassment. More directly relevant are China's efforts to cover up the Uighur enslavement and genocide in Xinjiang, or their handling of the Peng Shuai rape allegations. The thing to remember is that Chinese state media has much more to do with signaling the strength and control of the CCP to the Chinese than it has to do with persuading any foreigners of anything (look up "wolf warrior diplomacy" for this in its crudest form). Thus, even if it was obvious to the world that China's COVID Zero policy had failed, it seems to me that there would be good reasons related to avoiding motive ambiguity to continue denying the existence of a war in Ba Sing Se. You get many more "China doesn't take any shit from anyone for any reason" for denying obviously true things than you do for putting out official communications which might actually convey information about the state of COVID in China.
Djokovich has had his visa cancelled again at the Immigration Minister's personal discretion. He's going to appeal again.
There's a Federal election coming up in a few months, so there's more riding on this than there might appear.