There are two big pieces of pandemic news this week. One is that there is growing alarm about the dangers of avian flu, or H5N1. Likely mammal-to-mammal transmission has been identified, a lot of wild animals are infected, and there is a real danger that this will become a pandemic. I will cover this in its own post.
You are just wrong about not trying to ensure it doesn't happen again. Not doing so guarantees it happens again, over and over. Now you are right that it probably can't be accomplished, but we should try.
Re. the ADHD meds: I've been unable to get my testosterone for the last couple weeks due to supplier shortages. That's never happened to me before, so I wonder if it's related. Different drug schedule, though (III, not II.)
I’d love to get involved in testing or setting up the BrainWaves-Lights-Learning thing. I am still trying to wrap my head around the effect size and fully agree with you that the lack of enthusiasm is astonishing.
I would be happy to test Jacob Shapiro's hypothesis. Part of me wanted to when I read Scott's link post, but the monetary investment made an untested scheme seem unworth it. If you would provide the funding I would be happy to try it. If I try it and it doesn't work, I'd also be happy to mail the relevant technology to another party once I'm done so they can make their own attempt.
My qualifications: very few. I had an IQ test that ranked me at 130 some time ago, and I do think I am moderately bright. But I have no experience with any of the relevant technologies. I would be happy to spend some amount of hours learning how to work the device, read anything that I was pointed in the direction of, but I admit I would be going in blind. As to my overall character, I can produce witnesses to vouch for me, including some people on the periphery of the rationalist community. But I am too much of an observer to have developed a public reputation.
Re: blinking lights and learning, If you read the whole paper (or just scroll down till you get to figure 2.) You find that this like a nothing burger. There is not that much change and I also have some questions of how the control group is defined. (wrong frequency signal shown at trough?) And finally just the signal. They flash a light at your alpha freq. (~10 Hz, period is ~100 ms.) for 15 periods (which I think is meant to capture your alpha rhythm.) And then they show you an image. They turn the image on either starting at would be a peak of your alpha, or at the trough. But the image lasts for 200ms, that is about two periods. weird. Anyway not that interesting to me.
I've got a star next to my name. Anyway I can turn that off? (Knowing who is paying and who isn't distorts my view of the world... I could talk a lot about when I was the one in charge of getting donations for our church for about four years.)
"So I issue the challenge. Who wants to try this? I am happy to be part of this experiment. If necessary I would be happy to arrange funding."
I read Don't Worry About the Vase (as well as ACX) religiously.
I read your blog to model your thinking patterns and I appreciate the insights you share on an incredible range of complex issues. You're really a shining beacon in the intellectual world :)
I'm an early career medical doctor and recent Harvard graduate in biostatistics / bioinformatics. I have a small amount of research experience. I've also done some basic study in computational neuroscience while doing my masters.
In expectation, even a 1% chance of a 10% effect size on any type of cognitive enhancement would be worth a huge amount of time.
How can I contact you? I think we might possibly have mutual friends (I'd have to ask around) or is there a public-facing email address I could contact you through?
"What seems to be completely missing is the proper sense of excitement."
I read about this in ACX and thought "big if true, I wish I could try this". Now I see your challenge and I'm beyond excited. I'd like to participate in the experiment; if the hardware is just a few hundred $ (and easy to obtain), I won't need any funding. The tricky part (for me) is how to assemble and operate the device.
You are just wrong about not trying to ensure it doesn't happen again. Not doing so guarantees it happens again, over and over. Now you are right that it probably can't be accomplished, but we should try.
Re. the ADHD meds: I've been unable to get my testosterone for the last couple weeks due to supplier shortages. That's never happened to me before, so I wonder if it's related. Different drug schedule, though (III, not II.)
I’d love to get involved in testing or setting up the BrainWaves-Lights-Learning thing. I am still trying to wrap my head around the effect size and fully agree with you that the lack of enthusiasm is astonishing.
> unable to fill their meth ADHD med meth ADHD med prescriptions
I think this is a typo? Either that or I don't get the joke.
I would be happy to test Jacob Shapiro's hypothesis. Part of me wanted to when I read Scott's link post, but the monetary investment made an untested scheme seem unworth it. If you would provide the funding I would be happy to try it. If I try it and it doesn't work, I'd also be happy to mail the relevant technology to another party once I'm done so they can make their own attempt.
My qualifications: very few. I had an IQ test that ranked me at 130 some time ago, and I do think I am moderately bright. But I have no experience with any of the relevant technologies. I would be happy to spend some amount of hours learning how to work the device, read anything that I was pointed in the direction of, but I admit I would be going in blind. As to my overall character, I can produce witnesses to vouch for me, including some people on the periphery of the rationalist community. But I am too much of an observer to have developed a public reputation.
Do with all this what you will.
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-individuals-test-out-the-flashin
Per the link, the $326 figure quoted was per life-year, not per life.
https://manifold.markets/JoeBrenton/will-zvi-mowshowitz-write-at-least
https://manifold.markets/group/h5n1-bird-flu
It's not a matter of agreeing or disagreeing with this. All the figures are laid out like breakfast, make up your own mind.
Re: blinking lights and learning, If you read the whole paper (or just scroll down till you get to figure 2.) You find that this like a nothing burger. There is not that much change and I also have some questions of how the control group is defined. (wrong frequency signal shown at trough?) And finally just the signal. They flash a light at your alpha freq. (~10 Hz, period is ~100 ms.) for 15 periods (which I think is meant to capture your alpha rhythm.) And then they show you an image. They turn the image on either starting at would be a peak of your alpha, or at the trough. But the image lasts for 200ms, that is about two periods. weird. Anyway not that interesting to me.
I've got a star next to my name. Anyway I can turn that off? (Knowing who is paying and who isn't distorts my view of the world... I could talk a lot about when I was the one in charge of getting donations for our church for about four years.)
"So I issue the challenge. Who wants to try this? I am happy to be part of this experiment. If necessary I would be happy to arrange funding."
I read Don't Worry About the Vase (as well as ACX) religiously.
I read your blog to model your thinking patterns and I appreciate the insights you share on an incredible range of complex issues. You're really a shining beacon in the intellectual world :)
I'm an early career medical doctor and recent Harvard graduate in biostatistics / bioinformatics. I have a small amount of research experience. I've also done some basic study in computational neuroscience while doing my masters.
In expectation, even a 1% chance of a 10% effect size on any type of cognitive enhancement would be worth a huge amount of time.
How can I contact you? I think we might possibly have mutual friends (I'd have to ask around) or is there a public-facing email address I could contact you through?
"What seems to be completely missing is the proper sense of excitement."
I read about this in ACX and thought "big if true, I wish I could try this". Now I see your challenge and I'm beyond excited. I'd like to participate in the experiment; if the hardware is just a few hundred $ (and easy to obtain), I won't need any funding. The tricky part (for me) is how to assemble and operate the device.
Pfizer throughout the pandemic has spent a lot of time going "IT'S TIME FOR YOU TO BUY OUR NEW SHOT." Contrast Moderna.
Given that, I'm not sure I'd believe their claim beyond a surface level.