Omicron has made its way through every major country except one - China. Its time seems to have come. As I noted on Monday, China had already locked down 60 million people amid rapidly rising case counts. Unlike previous rounds where China was able to fully take extreme measures only it could take but that held the promise of physically working, this round’s efforts seem like the exact kind of hope that is not a strategy. They’ll
I'm very suspicious of that YouGov survey. "Black Americans estimate that, on average, Black people make up 52% of the U.S. adult population." Really?
I don't know what the actual survey form looked like, but I suspect it was something like a sliding percentage bar that defaults to 50%, and the user is prompted to drag it to what they believe the true proportion is. Given 43 questions like that, a critical mass of people would probably just start clicking through and marking every question as 50%. This would bring the average closer to the 50% mark and entirely explain the systematic overestimate of small groups and underestimate of large groups. It would also explain the remarkable well-orderedness - of the people who are giving actual answers, they are making pretty good guesses, but everyone else is just saying 50%.
Zvi, what are your reasons for having children, if I may ask? I want to have kids, but I don't like the idea of bringing them into a world where humanity has a strong chance of dying off within the next couple decades. I'm mostly worried about unfriendly AI. I don't think climate change is a serious existential risk, particularly given where I live. I would definitely have kids if I wasn't so worried about the future. I would love to hear your thoughts, and potentially be convinced otherwise!
"Another note is that if it’s true that only 1% of Americans are transgender, 3% are gay and 4% are bisexual... I’m actually highly suspicious that those numbers are that low."
Suspicious? Maybe because you live in NYC?
To me, 1% trans seems high, as does 4% bisexual. 3% gay seems about right.
I'm very suspicious of that YouGov survey. "Black Americans estimate that, on average, Black people make up 52% of the U.S. adult population." Really?
I don't know what the actual survey form looked like, but I suspect it was something like a sliding percentage bar that defaults to 50%, and the user is prompted to drag it to what they believe the true proportion is. Given 43 questions like that, a critical mass of people would probably just start clicking through and marking every question as 50%. This would bring the average closer to the 50% mark and entirely explain the systematic overestimate of small groups and underestimate of large groups. It would also explain the remarkable well-orderedness - of the people who are giving actual answers, they are making pretty good guesses, but everyone else is just saying 50%.
Zvi, what are your reasons for having children, if I may ask? I want to have kids, but I don't like the idea of bringing them into a world where humanity has a strong chance of dying off within the next couple decades. I'm mostly worried about unfriendly AI. I don't think climate change is a serious existential risk, particularly given where I live. I would definitely have kids if I wasn't so worried about the future. I would love to hear your thoughts, and potentially be convinced otherwise!
"Another note is that if it’s true that only 1% of Americans are transgender, 3% are gay and 4% are bisexual... I’m actually highly suspicious that those numbers are that low."
Suspicious? Maybe because you live in NYC?
To me, 1% trans seems high, as does 4% bisexual. 3% gay seems about right.