I visited Colombia and was distressed to see that you still need masks OUTDOORS and at all times. Outdoor mask usage is like 75%. It's also 90 degrees F.
I am curious as to whether the news of the CDC hiding and covering up COVID data makes you re-evaluate your probabilities of China’s reporting being meaningful, or remotely true?
As I recall, part of your estimate of probability of China's numbers being vaguely accurate was the argument that people would notice if they were not at least close. That the CDC is only now being outed as hiding data and being all shifty like for political purposes should decrease one's confidence that the CCP couldn't hide a lot more for a lot longer, I think. I outlined the general argument on my blog, and to my mind this should edge up estimations of "So how easy is it to simply lie about how many COVID 19 cases and deaths there are?" and not get caught. (https://dochammer.substack.com/p/is-it-really-likely-that-china-contained?s=w)
I am personally disappointed there were not whistle blowers at the CDC regarding their data practices. It seems as a culture we have lost a lot of willingness to stick our necks out for what is right.
Regarding the slower-than-expected decline of deaths. The only sense I can make of this is to imagine that the deaths they're counting include people who have died of something else, but who happen to have had a positive Covid test in the previous N days, where N is probably something like 60 or 90.
Congrats and I hope the birth is going well!
Congrats on the kid.
I visited Colombia and was distressed to see that you still need masks OUTDOORS and at all times. Outdoor mask usage is like 75%. It's also 90 degrees F.
Congratulations and good luck today!
A couple typos I noticed:
* France drops lets my people go, drops vaccine pass.
* and send it three times to make it clear how important it up.
Drop the "drops" and replace "it up" with "it is?"
Mazel tov!
Congrats on the new baby!
As an only occasional reader is "Permanent Midnight" supposed to mean something to me? Sounds scary but idk what I'm supposed to be scared of.
It's "permanent (possibly heavy) covid restrictions" (like how we still have no lightening of restrictions from the TSA twenty years after 9/11)
Please don't worry about the blog while you have a newborn. Doing your fair share of childcare is more important.
Congratulations!
Congratulations on the new little one!
I am curious as to whether the news of the CDC hiding and covering up COVID data makes you re-evaluate your probabilities of China’s reporting being meaningful, or remotely true?
Thanks! (to everyone saying congrats)
The news is that the CDC is hiding some of its data, I don't think that interacts with China's situation.
As I recall, part of your estimate of probability of China's numbers being vaguely accurate was the argument that people would notice if they were not at least close. That the CDC is only now being outed as hiding data and being all shifty like for political purposes should decrease one's confidence that the CCP couldn't hide a lot more for a lot longer, I think. I outlined the general argument on my blog, and to my mind this should edge up estimations of "So how easy is it to simply lie about how many COVID 19 cases and deaths there are?" and not get caught. (https://dochammer.substack.com/p/is-it-really-likely-that-china-contained?s=w)
I am personally disappointed there were not whistle blowers at the CDC regarding their data practices. It seems as a culture we have lost a lot of willingness to stick our necks out for what is right.
Congrats!
Congratulations on the new Mowshowitz!
Regarding the slower-than-expected decline of deaths. The only sense I can make of this is to imagine that the deaths they're counting include people who have died of something else, but who happen to have had a positive Covid test in the previous N days, where N is probably something like 60 or 90.