19 Comments

I assume the answer is no, but it never hurts to ask: have you encountered any information about the relative that effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna boosters, specifically regarding protection agains infection? Thanks!

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"Unfortunately, I got a rebound infection."

I think this para got missed in the block-quotes?

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Sep 8, 2022·edited Sep 9, 2022

While I don't disagree with the more general point about environmentalism, I was a bit suspicious of the higher numbers on that carrier bag chart (what, 20,000? Really?) and so I looked up the source.

Sure enough, there is something rather fishy. To calculate these figures, the researchers evaluated all kinds of bag on many metrics, ranging from carbon emissions to human toxicity (there are about 20 all told). But they then obtained a "combined" score for each bag, by taking the *maximum* ratio over the basic disposable plastic bag! That's blatantly unfair. Cotton bags aren't really 7000 times worse than plastic bags overall; they're just 7000 times worse on whichever measure they perform worst at.

If you're only concerned, say, about climate change, the actual figure for a cotton bag is only 50 times, which is quite reasonable (I do in fact use cotton bags for shopping, mostly for aesthetic reasons and I've certainly used them more than 50 times).

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"Prediction from last week (HOLIDAY): 420k deaths (-20%) and 2,550 deaths (-20%)."

"420k deaths" should be "420k cases"?

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You ask what odds you could get on Covid rebounds. Perhaps this Manifold market would be of interest? https://manifold.markets/JonathanNankivell/will-i-have-a-nonpaxlovid-covid-reb

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re: boosters, have you seen this preprint?

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4206070

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OK I'm placing a call, on proving sports betting is net good. Sure maybe some of you smart people can take advantage of us dumb f...s. But how is that net good? And what's the 51% in NYS? What's the 'take' by the betting places? Is it 'the house' takes 5% and NYS takes 5% or in NY the house gets 2.5% and NYS gets 2.5%? Do I get better odds from draft kings in Las Vegas? I must admit I hate the way sports betting has taken over AM sports talk radio.

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>My decision means I will officially not be ‘up to date’ on my booster. Neither will be (for a time) Dr. Fauci, despite his willingness to get a third booster.

Just out of curiosity, given that we had similar discussion here last year and you are now not up to date on your vaccines: do you think private businesses should have the right to

a) query your "up to date" status, (b) deny you access based on it or (c) fire you based on it?

I don't want to troll, but I'm curious to hear if your thinking has changed. The discussion I'm thinking of had reasoning like: some epsilon more risk of spreading covid => a a long chain of covid cases that could have been prevented had you been "up to date" => businesses should reasonably be allowed to ban the unvaccinated.

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What're the main costs of getting the new booster in your mind?

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