Related to: Asymmetric Justice, Privacy, Blackmail Previously (Paul Christiano): Epistemic Incentives and Sluggish Updating The starting context here is the problem of what Paul calls sluggish updating. Bob is asked to predict the probability of a recession this summer. He said 75% in January, and how believes 50% in February. What to do? Paul sees Bob as thinking roughly this:
Dishonest Update Reporting
Dishonest Update Reporting
Dishonest Update Reporting
Related to: Asymmetric Justice, Privacy, Blackmail Previously (Paul Christiano): Epistemic Incentives and Sluggish Updating The starting context here is the problem of what Paul calls sluggish updating. Bob is asked to predict the probability of a recession this summer. He said 75% in January, and how believes 50% in February. What to do? Paul sees Bob as thinking roughly this: