You mentioned being unworried about reaching capability thresholds leading to a doom scenario anytime soon.
Has your view changed significantly in the past year? If so, I'm curious about how you can be confident that you don't need to further update to avoid being wrong again "in the same direction."
You mentioned being unworried about reaching capability thresholds leading to a doom scenario anytime soon.
Has your view changed significantly in the past year? If so, I'm curious about how you can be confident that you don't need to further update to avoid being wrong again "in the same direction."
I mean, if you can be confident you won't update in one direction you should update in the other one! I do my best to fully update, not partially update. Doesn't mean I do a perfect job of it.
And yes, I have updated in the past year that capability thresholds being reached soon is more likely than I thought it was a year ago given what I knew at that time. I consider this mostly a fact about my previous lack of knowledge about the previous world state wrt AI and people's response to this level of AI capabilities, rather than things I could not have known or expected then if I'd investigated.
Excellent commentary, as always.
You mentioned being unworried about reaching capability thresholds leading to a doom scenario anytime soon.
Has your view changed significantly in the past year? If so, I'm curious about how you can be confident that you don't need to further update to avoid being wrong again "in the same direction."
I mean, if you can be confident you won't update in one direction you should update in the other one! I do my best to fully update, not partially update. Doesn't mean I do a perfect job of it.
And yes, I have updated in the past year that capability thresholds being reached soon is more likely than I thought it was a year ago given what I knew at that time. I consider this mostly a fact about my previous lack of knowledge about the previous world state wrt AI and people's response to this level of AI capabilities, rather than things I could not have known or expected then if I'd investigated.