Sources: Scott’s evaluations (includes original predictions), my buy/sell/hold post. Remember: Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight As a yearly tradition, when Scott Alexander comes out with his yearly predictions, I do a buy/sell/hold post, where I say what I would do if given the opportunity to trade against Scott’s probabilities, and outlining how I think about the questions.
"More than 66% got their first shot but complete vaccinations ended up around 62%. That difference remains weird to me, "
Shouldn't be, two reasons.
1) Complete vaccination was never going to be as high as first shot, even if everybody who got the 1st shot intended going in to get the 2nd. If you had a bad reaction, or even thought something unrelated was a bad reaction, or life got in the way, you might not get the 2nd.
2) If you've had Covid already, you might want a booster shot. *But booster shots are not easily available without already being vaxed.* You'd need a doctor to sign off on it. Signing up for the full series and blowing off the 2nd shot is a cheap and easy way to approximate the booster shot.
So, that's what *I* did. I can't be alone in doing that...
As I mentioned on Scott's posts, and will mention here: I believe he has graded the Google question incorrectly. Google is allowing remote work for current workers, but they are claiming it is a temporary situation and that they plan to get everyone back to the office soon. They are telling new hires to not expect remote work as an option in the future. I wouldn't grade this allowing it "widely" with "no questions asked". To the point that I very much did not apply to work at Google recently and instead took a job with an employer who promised 100% remote work going forward.
"More than 66% got their first shot but complete vaccinations ended up around 62%. That difference remains weird to me, "
Shouldn't be, two reasons.
1) Complete vaccination was never going to be as high as first shot, even if everybody who got the 1st shot intended going in to get the 2nd. If you had a bad reaction, or even thought something unrelated was a bad reaction, or life got in the way, you might not get the 2nd.
2) If you've had Covid already, you might want a booster shot. *But booster shots are not easily available without already being vaxed.* You'd need a doctor to sign off on it. Signing up for the full series and blowing off the 2nd shot is a cheap and easy way to approximate the booster shot.
So, that's what *I* did. I can't be alone in doing that...
Do you have any good recommendations for a 'finance'/'banking'/'trading' 'textbook' (e.g. a website or series of blog posts would be great too)?
You really lean on those 'metaphors' (and, AFAICT, the actual concepts) and I notice that I'd like a sharper idea of what you mean exactly.
As I mentioned on Scott's posts, and will mention here: I believe he has graded the Google question incorrectly. Google is allowing remote work for current workers, but they are claiming it is a temporary situation and that they plan to get everyone back to the office soon. They are telling new hires to not expect remote work as an option in the future. I wouldn't grade this allowing it "widely" with "no questions asked". To the point that I very much did not apply to work at Google recently and instead took a job with an employer who promised 100% remote work going forward.