Previously: 2022 ACX Predictions Buy/Sell/Hold, Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions As is the yearly tradition, let’s see how we did. Scott noted in his results post that on pure numbers I did pretty well, coming in 54th out of 508 entries. My own evaluation, by my own standards, is I did a mediocre job.
You described GameStop as ending up “way down” and it did end the year down 20%. But it was still above (the equivalent of) 100 as late as of Thanksgiving and 20% doesn’t seem huge given its volatility, so I just wanted to confirm that you saw that it had a 4-to-1 split during the year (rather than just being down 80%+ at year end).
Was interesting to compare to my review (https://shakeddown.substack.com/p/2022-prediction-contest-performance). My most consistent takeaway was that I anchored too much, you anchored much less than me and still felt like you anchored too much so good to know I still have room to go on that before going too far.
Personally, I'd find individual posts about the most important things you think will happen this year (or whenever) to be more useful than a huge a list like this.
I just want to say, I dislike sports betting, gambling and prediction markets. They all seem designed (or work) to take money away from people who don't know. And give it to those that do know. Since in all those things, (sports, politics, gambling) I figure I'm one of the people not in the know, it's best to ignore them... no matter how tempting it is to bet my feelings. I will answer any polls you post, but I'm a meh. (Oh and if you want politics prediction markets, maybe the path is through sports betting... get that to expand.) (Oh I didn't read most of this post, just the beginning and end, which is fine. I don't read all you write.)
Did you know that you can make the ACX predictions with real money?
https://futuur.com/q/tag/Astral%20Codex%20Ten%202023%20Prediction%20Contest
You described GameStop as ending up “way down” and it did end the year down 20%. But it was still above (the equivalent of) 100 as late as of Thanksgiving and 20% doesn’t seem huge given its volatility, so I just wanted to confirm that you saw that it had a 4-to-1 split during the year (rather than just being down 80%+ at year end).
Was interesting to compare to my review (https://shakeddown.substack.com/p/2022-prediction-contest-performance). My most consistent takeaway was that I anchored too much, you anchored much less than me and still felt like you anchored too much so good to know I still have room to go on that before going too far.
Personally, I'd find individual posts about the most important things you think will happen this year (or whenever) to be more useful than a huge a list like this.
Regarding the traffic light question. This is a lot less weirdly specific than it looks like. For some context and a rephrasing of the question:
There is a policy S in a legal grey zone, which almost every government over the last decade has been criticized of using almost every fiscal year.
Will the yellow part of the traffic light, who has been an outspoken critic of S and sits now in the seat of power to decide, also utilize S?
And the obvious result was about to be: Yellow claims to do S' which is totally not S, but everyone else agrees on S=S'.
But then the Russian-Ukraine war forced a vote to make the question of S irrelevant for 2022.
(Though again critics claim the way this was done is effectively doing S in 2023 https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-11/haushalt-bundesrechnungshof-kritik-schuldenbremse-christian-lindner?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F)
I just want to say, I dislike sports betting, gambling and prediction markets. They all seem designed (or work) to take money away from people who don't know. And give it to those that do know. Since in all those things, (sports, politics, gambling) I figure I'm one of the people not in the know, it's best to ignore them... no matter how tempting it is to bet my feelings. I will answer any polls you post, but I'm a meh. (Oh and if you want politics prediction markets, maybe the path is through sports betting... get that to expand.) (Oh I didn't read most of this post, just the beginning and end, which is fine. I don't read all you write.)