13 Comments

Did you know that you can make the ACX predictions with real money?

https://futuur.com/q/tag/Astral%20Codex%20Ten%202023%20Prediction%20Contest

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author

I have seen some strange prediction market values, but wow those are strange values. If I trusted the site to pay and there was substantial money I could wager, I would take the Free Money. Alas, no.

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Got it! What do you mean about strange values?

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author

As in, Harris over Biden to be the Dem nominee level strange.

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Cool, you can make some money in this market then, at the moment Biden has an 80% chance to be the next Dem nominee, so if you believe Harris will be the next one, you'll find great odds!

At Futuur you don't bet against the bookie, you bet against the users and you can benefit from it.

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It's the play money version of the market that has Harris > Biden. The real money version has Biden at 80%, although as far as I can tell there's only $47 total staked on it.

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Exactly, the odds of the event occurring will be different between play money and real money. Historically real money presented more accurate probabilities than play money.

This market doesn't really have a lot of volume, so the odds will be more volatile. To find markets with higher volume, it's possible to use the filter.

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You described GameStop as ending up “way down” and it did end the year down 20%. But it was still above (the equivalent of) 100 as late as of Thanksgiving and 20% doesn’t seem huge given its volatility, so I just wanted to confirm that you saw that it had a 4-to-1 split during the year (rather than just being down 80%+ at year end).

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author

Oh. No, I did not, despite actually owning a tiny bit of the stock. The split seems like bad meme stocking and I hadn't heard about it.

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Was interesting to compare to my review (https://shakeddown.substack.com/p/2022-prediction-contest-performance). My most consistent takeaway was that I anchored too much, you anchored much less than me and still felt like you anchored too much so good to know I still have room to go on that before going too far.

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Personally, I'd find individual posts about the most important things you think will happen this year (or whenever) to be more useful than a huge a list like this.

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Regarding the traffic light question. This is a lot less weirdly specific than it looks like. For some context and a rephrasing of the question:

There is a policy S in a legal grey zone, which almost every government over the last decade has been criticized of using almost every fiscal year.

Will the yellow part of the traffic light, who has been an outspoken critic of S and sits now in the seat of power to decide, also utilize S?

And the obvious result was about to be: Yellow claims to do S' which is totally not S, but everyone else agrees on S=S'.

But then the Russian-Ukraine war forced a vote to make the question of S irrelevant for 2022.

(Though again critics claim the way this was done is effectively doing S in 2023 https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-11/haushalt-bundesrechnungshof-kritik-schuldenbremse-christian-lindner?utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F)

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Feb 16, 2023·edited Feb 16, 2023

I just want to say, I dislike sports betting, gambling and prediction markets. They all seem designed (or work) to take money away from people who don't know. And give it to those that do know. Since in all those things, (sports, politics, gambling) I figure I'm one of the people not in the know, it's best to ignore them... no matter how tempting it is to bet my feelings. I will answer any polls you post, but I'm a meh. (Oh and if you want politics prediction markets, maybe the path is through sports betting... get that to expand.) (Oh I didn't read most of this post, just the beginning and end, which is fine. I don't read all you write.)

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