Epistemic Status: Confident I have useful things to say, but apologies for the long post because I don't think it's worth my time to make it shorter. Better to get thoughts down for those who want to read them. Scott Alexander's latest post points to the question of how best to evaluate predictions. The way he characterized leading predictions on Trump and Brexit, that 'prediction is hard,' instinctively bothered me. Characterizing the coronavirus situation the same way bothered me even more.
Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight
Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight
Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight
Epistemic Status: Confident I have useful things to say, but apologies for the long post because I don't think it's worth my time to make it shorter. Better to get thoughts down for those who want to read them. Scott Alexander's latest post points to the question of how best to evaluate predictions. The way he characterized leading predictions on Trump and Brexit, that 'prediction is hard,' instinctively bothered me. Characterizing the coronavirus situation the same way bothered me even more.