"I find it super valuable to live here in New York City, but others do not need that and have less ability to pay the housing costs."
And then you have people like me, who would rather live in a compound somewhere on 200 acres of land, but before COVID no wordcel employeer would let me wordcel from a compound 200 miles away from the nearest major metroplex. Maybe the cities are in trouble because lots of people in them hated it but needed to be there because their boomer wordcel managers couldn't fathom the idea of anything other than management by walking around.
If I'm reading it right, you call that "admitting defeat", but to me its almost early retirement, because I really like the wordceling I do and my current retirement plan is "move the fuck out of a city and set up a compound". I think there will always be sufficient folks like you who prefer city life that we can have NYC/SF/Miami/etc be what you want. But I think Grand Rapids or Jacksonville might not survive in their current form.
Dear Andrew Yang, I would like to introduce you to [redacted] a 19 year old man who graduated highschool with a 4.0-ish GPA and 18 months later graduated from a trade school with more job offers than he could keep track of. He is not at all unique. I don't know how much of an influence [redicated] had on that 40% number, but its not zero based on my personal observations. And I hope it keep increasing.
And I wrote that before Polymath's tweet. Captialism works! Its just that consumers are used to being the limited resorce for tradesmen, and now the tradesmen are the limited resource. So captialism is working to reduce their time wasted with shitty customers. And there's a limit on the number of tradesmens for cultural reasons (telling the median 16 year old boy he needs to go to college or he's a failure) instead of economic reasons. We fortuantly have been trying more captialism, and it seems to be working. Again, anecdotally.
I need to run and can't comment on any more links, but I want to say I enjoyed this kind of post. I got off social media because it was aweful a long time ago. But having someone else filter out a few interesting bits from the sewage is very nice.
One point on supply chains and inflation because most economic discourse is fairly lazy:
Supply constraints lead to relative price changes more so than absolute price changes absent excessive monetary stimulus. Holding money equal, if I have to pay more for my car, I have less to spend on something else and that price will fall leaving the overall price level unchanged. Obviously there are a lot of real-world complications, but the basic point is correct.
Excessive stimulus will always result in what looks like supply chain issues (more money than goods+services = something is in short supply).
True at equilibrium but prices are sticky especially in face of short term disruptions. I wouldn't expect that if the price of for example cars doubles due to supply chain issues for a year and then returns to normal that you would see much other adjustment in prices of other goods due to reduced consumption, if anything I'd expect some upward pressure on wages.
To be fair, Elon Musk couldn't possibly have planned to become the world's greatest twitter troll, because he didn't know that Donald Trump would get banned.
I was thinking its a little bit of a lemon problem. The people who don't have a plumber / electrician / etc that they work with might have burned the relationship with their previous [skilled laborer]. I don't think that is the whole story though.
I know a few skilled laborers and there tends to be tons of work to go around, they tend to know each other, and they tend to value their reputations. One way to quickly ruin your reputation with customers would be to price gouge someone. One way to quickly ruin your relationship with other skilled laborers is to drastically undercut them just to take work away from them. Since there is generally enough work to go around, but not always enough money to go around it makes for the opposite of a 'cut-throat' environment. Skilled craftsmen often barter their labor with each other.
Re #7 (the pizza maths question). Almost nobody in the thread seems to have considered the possibility which seems by far the most likely to me, which is that the teacher doesn't exist and this is a joke. I note that you don't consider it either, which leaves me confused. Is there some reason to believe it's real?
"I find it super valuable to live here in New York City, but others do not need that and have less ability to pay the housing costs."
And then you have people like me, who would rather live in a compound somewhere on 200 acres of land, but before COVID no wordcel employeer would let me wordcel from a compound 200 miles away from the nearest major metroplex. Maybe the cities are in trouble because lots of people in them hated it but needed to be there because their boomer wordcel managers couldn't fathom the idea of anything other than management by walking around.
If I'm reading it right, you call that "admitting defeat", but to me its almost early retirement, because I really like the wordceling I do and my current retirement plan is "move the fuck out of a city and set up a compound". I think there will always be sufficient folks like you who prefer city life that we can have NYC/SF/Miami/etc be what you want. But I think Grand Rapids or Jacksonville might not survive in their current form.
Dear Andrew Yang, I would like to introduce you to [redacted] a 19 year old man who graduated highschool with a 4.0-ish GPA and 18 months later graduated from a trade school with more job offers than he could keep track of. He is not at all unique. I don't know how much of an influence [redicated] had on that 40% number, but its not zero based on my personal observations. And I hope it keep increasing.
And I wrote that before Polymath's tweet. Captialism works! Its just that consumers are used to being the limited resorce for tradesmen, and now the tradesmen are the limited resource. So captialism is working to reduce their time wasted with shitty customers. And there's a limit on the number of tradesmens for cultural reasons (telling the median 16 year old boy he needs to go to college or he's a failure) instead of economic reasons. We fortuantly have been trying more captialism, and it seems to be working. Again, anecdotally.
I need to run and can't comment on any more links, but I want to say I enjoyed this kind of post. I got off social media because it was aweful a long time ago. But having someone else filter out a few interesting bits from the sewage is very nice.
One point on supply chains and inflation because most economic discourse is fairly lazy:
Supply constraints lead to relative price changes more so than absolute price changes absent excessive monetary stimulus. Holding money equal, if I have to pay more for my car, I have less to spend on something else and that price will fall leaving the overall price level unchanged. Obviously there are a lot of real-world complications, but the basic point is correct.
Excessive stimulus will always result in what looks like supply chain issues (more money than goods+services = something is in short supply).
True at equilibrium but prices are sticky especially in face of short term disruptions. I wouldn't expect that if the price of for example cars doubles due to supply chain issues for a year and then returns to normal that you would see much other adjustment in prices of other goods due to reduced consumption, if anything I'd expect some upward pressure on wages.
If prices are sticky we'd see demand fall sharply for those goods/services. We have seen the opposite (booming nominal gdp growth).
To be fair, Elon Musk couldn't possibly have planned to become the world's greatest twitter troll, because he didn't know that Donald Trump would get banned.
Could the plumber problem be a "Market for Lemons" problem? Though, doesn't explain why the ones getting recommendations aren't charging the Earth.
I was thinking its a little bit of a lemon problem. The people who don't have a plumber / electrician / etc that they work with might have burned the relationship with their previous [skilled laborer]. I don't think that is the whole story though.
I know a few skilled laborers and there tends to be tons of work to go around, they tend to know each other, and they tend to value their reputations. One way to quickly ruin your reputation with customers would be to price gouge someone. One way to quickly ruin your relationship with other skilled laborers is to drastically undercut them just to take work away from them. Since there is generally enough work to go around, but not always enough money to go around it makes for the opposite of a 'cut-throat' environment. Skilled craftsmen often barter their labor with each other.
Re #7 (the pizza maths question). Almost nobody in the thread seems to have considered the possibility which seems by far the most likely to me, which is that the teacher doesn't exist and this is a joke. I note that you don't consider it either, which leaves me confused. Is there some reason to believe it's real?