I don't think we're anywhere near maxing out the cost curve for solar. I think we may be close to maxing out the cost curve for traditional utility-scale installations, though. The cost of the panels themselves is a pretty small--maybe 20% of the final cost. The other cost is for things like the inverters, mounting hardware, labor, etc. But you can drive down the cost of thoses aspects quite a bit.
For example, you don't need an inverter. Lot's of applications, such as data centers, electrolyzers, or even HVDC transmission can operate on DC power. Another significant cost is mounting hardware, to keep the solar panels in an optimal position relative to the sun, either tracking or fixed. But you can also just drop the solar panels on the ground! You lose a bit of efficiency, but you can make up for that by using more solar panels. Oh, and this also cuts down by a huge amount on the labor needed to install the mounting hardware and mount the solar panels.
Some calculations on ChatGPT tells me that a single standard-sized container could hold about 10 MW of thin-film solar panels. You could conceivably manufacture a container-sized device that automatically unrolls 10 MW of solar power onto unused desert land with virtually zero mounting hardware, inverter, and labor costs, taking full advantage of economies of scale. There is a lot of space left on the learning curve to reach that point.
I can't for the life of me understand the Sun Cable proposal. I've worked in energy, but I'm not an engineer. Perhaps some smart folks can tell me I'm wrong, but besides some kind of "blue sky thinking" grift, how on earth does it make sense to link Darwin to Singapore with a power cable? The distance from DRW - SIN is greater than the distance from DRW - SYD. It's much greater than DRW - BNE, which would also be a more logical point to link Darwin to Australia's east coast electricity grid. Surely it's cheaper and less risky to build overland across Australia than laying undersea cable through (largely) Indonesian waters? Can it really work out cheaper laying deep sea cable to South East Asia rather than connecting Top End solar to other Australian locations? Is the power price differential, or demand level in Singapore, really large enough to justify such a cost and risk?
The only sensible part is the time difference - when regional Northern Australia is generating power at midday and afternoon, Singapore is coming online in the morning. Power going to East Coast Australia doesn't have this advantage I suppose. But still, midday power from Northern Australia would be selling into the evening peak on the East Coast.
It doesn't seem to make sense. It seems there is some bias in people's thinking where they assume that Singapore is close to Darwin, because they're all tropical, right? Now Australia's big, but so is the distance between Aus and South-East Asia.
Podcast episode for this post:
https://open.substack.com/pub/dwatvpodcast/p/nepa-permitting-and-energy-1
Link for list of environmental groups opposing permitting reform bill goes to the Bloomberg article on subsidies mentioned further down.
Really glad to have another series of this nature; I love me some roundups!
I don't think we're anywhere near maxing out the cost curve for solar. I think we may be close to maxing out the cost curve for traditional utility-scale installations, though. The cost of the panels themselves is a pretty small--maybe 20% of the final cost. The other cost is for things like the inverters, mounting hardware, labor, etc. But you can drive down the cost of thoses aspects quite a bit.
For example, you don't need an inverter. Lot's of applications, such as data centers, electrolyzers, or even HVDC transmission can operate on DC power. Another significant cost is mounting hardware, to keep the solar panels in an optimal position relative to the sun, either tracking or fixed. But you can also just drop the solar panels on the ground! You lose a bit of efficiency, but you can make up for that by using more solar panels. Oh, and this also cuts down by a huge amount on the labor needed to install the mounting hardware and mount the solar panels.
Some calculations on ChatGPT tells me that a single standard-sized container could hold about 10 MW of thin-film solar panels. You could conceivably manufacture a container-sized device that automatically unrolls 10 MW of solar power onto unused desert land with virtually zero mounting hardware, inverter, and labor costs, taking full advantage of economies of scale. There is a lot of space left on the learning curve to reach that point.
I can't for the life of me understand the Sun Cable proposal. I've worked in energy, but I'm not an engineer. Perhaps some smart folks can tell me I'm wrong, but besides some kind of "blue sky thinking" grift, how on earth does it make sense to link Darwin to Singapore with a power cable? The distance from DRW - SIN is greater than the distance from DRW - SYD. It's much greater than DRW - BNE, which would also be a more logical point to link Darwin to Australia's east coast electricity grid. Surely it's cheaper and less risky to build overland across Australia than laying undersea cable through (largely) Indonesian waters? Can it really work out cheaper laying deep sea cable to South East Asia rather than connecting Top End solar to other Australian locations? Is the power price differential, or demand level in Singapore, really large enough to justify such a cost and risk?
The only sensible part is the time difference - when regional Northern Australia is generating power at midday and afternoon, Singapore is coming online in the morning. Power going to East Coast Australia doesn't have this advantage I suppose. But still, midday power from Northern Australia would be selling into the evening peak on the East Coast.
It doesn't seem to make sense. It seems there is some bias in people's thinking where they assume that Singapore is close to Darwin, because they're all tropical, right? Now Australia's big, but so is the distance between Aus and South-East Asia.