Important note on testing that I’m including at top of both posts today. From various sources, I have become convinced that rapid tests taken from nose swabs are likely to often be several days slower at detecting infections than rapid tests that use throat swabs.
Thank you for these awesome posts. Love them. It would be cool if you added to your probability section a date on which infections will have considerably dropped -- e.g., from previous graphs, it seems like cases will be comparatively quite low by, say, Feb 1. This would help me set a date to look forward to, maybe, safely returning to a more normal life ;)
"The people who answer ‘nothing’ here are either interpreting the question differently, they have very strange preferences"
I'd pick that; I don't think my preferences are very strange. Definitively a minority view, but there's got to be at least 5% who think the same. Mainly its about remote work. I'd pay a lot for things staying the same as now (except if it involved literally paying for worsening the pandemic, that'd be basically equivalent of qntm.org/button )
In Arizona hospitalization and ICU numbers are barely 60% of what they were last winter so I'm not sure how they can be red (at capacity) in map figure. Staff shortages can't make up that gap.
I'm surprised you are optimistic about the mask mandates being dropped, I'm curious why? Regulators have a long and storied history of doing ineffective things that are highly visible a long time after its common knowledge that its dumb (see: removing shoes at the airport).
"I simply can’t take seriously, as someone who might want a physically better and healthier world, anyone who restricts travel in such ways. "
Would it make sense to impede travel to areas with high spread since that's where new variants are most likely to emerge, and thus buy time to deal with new variants that emerge?
Confused by why you think there's only a 45% chance that Omicron has a transmission advantage over Delta, unless I'm misinterpreting what that means?
I know the difference between median and mode, but I don't understand at all what it means for the peak day to have medians or modes.
Thank you for these awesome posts. Love them. It would be cool if you added to your probability section a date on which infections will have considerably dropped -- e.g., from previous graphs, it seems like cases will be comparatively quite low by, say, Feb 1. This would help me set a date to look forward to, maybe, safely returning to a more normal life ;)
"The people who answer ‘nothing’ here are either interpreting the question differently, they have very strange preferences"
I'd pick that; I don't think my preferences are very strange. Definitively a minority view, but there's got to be at least 5% who think the same. Mainly its about remote work. I'd pay a lot for things staying the same as now (except if it involved literally paying for worsening the pandemic, that'd be basically equivalent of qntm.org/button )
In Arizona hospitalization and ICU numbers are barely 60% of what they were last winter so I'm not sure how they can be red (at capacity) in map figure. Staff shortages can't make up that gap.
I'm surprised you are optimistic about the mask mandates being dropped, I'm curious why? Regulators have a long and storied history of doing ineffective things that are highly visible a long time after its common knowledge that its dumb (see: removing shoes at the airport).
"I simply can’t take seriously, as someone who might want a physically better and healthier world, anyone who restricts travel in such ways. "
Would it make sense to impede travel to areas with high spread since that's where new variants are most likely to emerge, and thus buy time to deal with new variants that emerge?
>throat swab
Looks like the best available evidence for that comes from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.22.21268246v1.full.
The specific instructions are located in the "Swab collection" subsection of "Supplementary methods".