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I agree that what we're seeing would be broadly compatible with Omicron=Delta in terms of what happens if a given person catches it. I also think it's broadly consistent with it being milder, and it's unclear what answer you would get if you controlled for all that stuff properly (and thus, what the ultimate answer will be), and I would …
I agree that what we're seeing would be broadly compatible with Omicron=Delta in terms of what happens if a given person catches it. I also think it's broadly consistent with it being milder, and it's unclear what answer you would get if you controlled for all that stuff properly (and thus, what the ultimate answer will be), and I would be very unsurprised by either outcome. I don't think we get the luxury of 'can't be claimed' (or the similar 'no evidence') here, and I notice that the news does seem better on this front than I expected after accounting for all these factors as best I can.
And of course, I stand very ready to change my tune in either direction very quickly when new data comes in.
Thanks for the reply! I really do love your posts. I just feel that right now, we cannot compare apples to apples with the young patients who are being hospitalized in South Africa at the moment vs. the much older population in the US. Time will tell, and in a few months, the picture will be much clearer.