Here are some better worlds we might have lived in, but don’t. In a better world, I could focus on this full time and also maybe even hire a research assistant, and be better able to scour for information. In a better world than that, there would be a department at a newspaper, or some other such place, that scoured the world for data sources like SGTF deletion counts and wastewater concentrations that could help us understand spread, called the sources to attempt to get the best data possible, and complied it all in nice form.
Any news on mAb effectiveness against Omicron? Losing our best therapeutic while the FDA dithers on Paxlovid would be a disaster, but that's where the last studies I saw were pointing.
My partner and I have a vacation planned where we’d be flying out (domestic, within the US) in a few days and returning shortly after Christmas. We’re going somewhere warm and most of our activities will be outdoors (aside from a couple museums) and we plan to do outdoor dining exclusively. I am boosted and my partner is double vaxxed and we both have N95s but wear them badly.
How dangerous should we be considering this trip given the Omicron variant? My partner says this trip is very important to their mental health, so my arbitrary threshold is that if the chance of us getting infected during this trip is <5-10%, it’s still worth taking.
Swiss here. Swiss data is overall soso (definitely worse than what you would expect given GDP, HDI, etc), collection process sort of sucks (at least they stopped using fax machines which were deprecated by telcos even before the pandemic some time along the line...) and variant data actually pretty bad, much less sequencing than one would like.
"Chance we are broadly looking at a future crisis situation with widely overwhelmed American hospitals, new large American lockdowns and things like that" - From your reasoning for the probability change it sounds like this prediction is mostly about lockdowns in particular? I can see 35% for lockdowns, but it seems low for "a future crisis situation with widely overwhelmed American hospitals". And if it is about lockdowns in particular, do these 35% include the option of a lockdown only for the unvaccinated?
Do we think Omicron gets it’s business done quicker? I’ve tested positive today and I’m hoping to be able to spend Christmas Day with my family (day 9)
I heard that vaccines can temporarily make you _more_ vulnerable by keeping your immune system busy. I don’t remember what this effect was called or how long it is supposed to last. Is this true? And if so, is one better off getting the booster between now and Christmas (a day of increased risk of exposure) or waiting until after? I last got shots in April.
I - My naive sense is that when some variants take over percentage of cases, they crowd out earlier variants. But maybe with enough mutation, then we end up with just multiple pandemics of diseases with different features happening at the same time.
Does omicron displace delta and steal hosts, or do they start coexisting?
II - The evolutionary search speed is determined by number of infected. If we're going to increase the hosts this little computer is running on from hundred millions to billions, that's not great. Even if milder, how much should we worry about omicron's ability to accelerate the emergence of something worse still?
Where does omicron move your doomsday clock for infectious disease, if at all?
Any news on mAb effectiveness against Omicron? Losing our best therapeutic while the FDA dithers on Paxlovid would be a disaster, but that's where the last studies I saw were pointing.
Zvi, I am hoping to get your thoughts here.
My partner and I have a vacation planned where we’d be flying out (domestic, within the US) in a few days and returning shortly after Christmas. We’re going somewhere warm and most of our activities will be outdoors (aside from a couple museums) and we plan to do outdoor dining exclusively. I am boosted and my partner is double vaxxed and we both have N95s but wear them badly.
How dangerous should we be considering this trip given the Omicron variant? My partner says this trip is very important to their mental health, so my arbitrary threshold is that if the chance of us getting infected during this trip is <5-10%, it’s still worth taking.
What about the stock and similar markets? If there is indeed disaster lurking at the corner, it does not seem to be priced in at all, or?
Swiss here. Swiss data is overall soso (definitely worse than what you would expect given GDP, HDI, etc), collection process sort of sucks (at least they stopped using fax machines which were deprecated by telcos even before the pandemic some time along the line...) and variant data actually pretty bad, much less sequencing than one would like.
German Government apparently ordered a large number of Pfizer boosters adjusted to Omicron for delivery in late Q1/early Q2 next year.
Big question is whether it's already too late by that point.
We're already in a partial shutdown, but most people were hoping we'd be out again once the numbers go down.
I don't know if anyone is willing to maintain even stricter shutdowns to delay the big wave until those Omicron boosters arrive.
Nova Scotia here, where so far, case rates have been among the lowest in NorthAmerica.
Three days ago, first Omicron cases were detected.
Today, had the highest daily number of cases reported for the entire pandemic. 287 cases, in a population just under 1 million.
"Chance we are broadly looking at a future crisis situation with widely overwhelmed American hospitals, new large American lockdowns and things like that" - From your reasoning for the probability change it sounds like this prediction is mostly about lockdowns in particular? I can see 35% for lockdowns, but it seems low for "a future crisis situation with widely overwhelmed American hospitals". And if it is about lockdowns in particular, do these 35% include the option of a lockdown only for the unvaccinated?
Do we think Omicron gets it’s business done quicker? I’ve tested positive today and I’m hoping to be able to spend Christmas Day with my family (day 9)
I heard that vaccines can temporarily make you _more_ vulnerable by keeping your immune system busy. I don’t remember what this effect was called or how long it is supposed to last. Is this true? And if so, is one better off getting the booster between now and Christmas (a day of increased risk of exposure) or waiting until after? I last got shots in April.
I - My naive sense is that when some variants take over percentage of cases, they crowd out earlier variants. But maybe with enough mutation, then we end up with just multiple pandemics of diseases with different features happening at the same time.
Does omicron displace delta and steal hosts, or do they start coexisting?
II - The evolutionary search speed is determined by number of infected. If we're going to increase the hosts this little computer is running on from hundred millions to billions, that's not great. Even if milder, how much should we worry about omicron's ability to accelerate the emergence of something worse still?
Where does omicron move your doomsday clock for infectious disease, if at all?