Previously: Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight Epistemic Status: Having fun Evaluating predictions is hard, especially about the future. Let's do it. The most frustrating part of predictions is defining them carefully. A lot of Scott's 2020 predictions seem like they have a high enough probability of a disputed outcome that they'd require clarification before betting on them. A bunch of others say they're explicitly Scott's decision. Thus, I'll try to clarify how I interpret such proposals as part of my evaluation.
SlateStarCodex 2020 Predictions: Buy, Sell, Hold
SlateStarCodex 2020 Predictions: Buy, Sell…
SlateStarCodex 2020 Predictions: Buy, Sell, Hold
Previously: Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight Epistemic Status: Having fun Evaluating predictions is hard, especially about the future. Let's do it. The most frustrating part of predictions is defining them carefully. A lot of Scott's 2020 predictions seem like they have a high enough probability of a disputed outcome that they'd require clarification before betting on them. A bunch of others say they're explicitly Scott's decision. Thus, I'll try to clarify how I interpret such proposals as part of my evaluation.