Epistemic Status: Sadly Not Yet Subsidized Robin Hanson linked to my previous post on prediction markets with the following note: https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1022535475410731009 I did briefly mention subsidization, as an option for satisfying the fifth requirement: Sources of Disagreement and Interest, also known as Suckers At The Table. The ultimate sucker is an explicit, intentional one. It can serve that roll quite well, and a sufficiently large subsidy can make up for a lot. Any sufficiently large sucker can do that - give people enough profit to chase, and suddenly not being so well-defined or so quick or probable to resolve, or even being not safe from key insider information, starts to sound like it is worth the risk.
Subsidizing Prediction Markets
Subsidizing Prediction Markets
Subsidizing Prediction Markets
Epistemic Status: Sadly Not Yet Subsidized Robin Hanson linked to my previous post on prediction markets with the following note: https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1022535475410731009 I did briefly mention subsidization, as an option for satisfying the fifth requirement: Sources of Disagreement and Interest, also known as Suckers At The Table. The ultimate sucker is an explicit, intentional one. It can serve that roll quite well, and a sufficiently large subsidy can make up for a lot. Any sufficiently large sucker can do that - give people enough profit to chase, and suddenly not being so well-defined or so quick or probable to resolve, or even being not safe from key insider information, starts to sound like it is worth the risk.