In part a response to (Overcoming Bias): Variolation May Cut Covid19 Deaths 3-30X Also related: This is an expansion of parts of this debate with Robin Hanson. Epistemic Status: Thinking out loud. Food for thought. Not an expert. Initial viral load seems likely to have a large impact on severity of Covid-19 infection. If we believe this, we should take this seriously, and evaluate both general policy and personal behavior differently in light of this information. We should also do our best to confirm or deny this hypothesis as soon as possible.
Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously
Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously
Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously
In part a response to (Overcoming Bias): Variolation May Cut Covid19 Deaths 3-30X Also related: This is an expansion of parts of this debate with Robin Hanson. Epistemic Status: Thinking out loud. Food for thought. Not an expert. Initial viral load seems likely to have a large impact on severity of Covid-19 infection. If we believe this, we should take this seriously, and evaluate both general policy and personal behavior differently in light of this information. We should also do our best to confirm or deny this hypothesis as soon as possible.