It is interesting to contemplate that the preeminent investment bank is getting a front row seat to one of the premier ai labs in the country. My intuition (which may be wrong!) is that investment bankers on the whole have not yet intuited all the implications that flow from AGI….
When I talk to people at OpenAI nowadays, more of them seem focused on becoming a large and profitable tech company, rather than a vision of AGI that involves fundamentally transforming the economy.
You describe "OpenAI charges headfirst into AGI, and fails, because no one develops AGI any time soon." as a failure case. To me it seems like they could end up being worth a trillion dollars just from ChatGPT, even if they never create AGI. Could be the biggest startup success since Facebook.
I think there are some plausible scenarios where they fail at AGI but are still a good investment. Automating a few percent of human cognitive tasks would add trillions of dollars to the global economy. Maybe it takes 50 years to go from 5% automation to 100% automation and some other company gets their first, but they still make many trillions in profits along the way.
It is interesting to contemplate that the preeminent investment bank is getting a front row seat to one of the premier ai labs in the country. My intuition (which may be wrong!) is that investment bankers on the whole have not yet intuited all the implications that flow from AGI….
When I talk to people at OpenAI nowadays, more of them seem focused on becoming a large and profitable tech company, rather than a vision of AGI that involves fundamentally transforming the economy.
You describe "OpenAI charges headfirst into AGI, and fails, because no one develops AGI any time soon." as a failure case. To me it seems like they could end up being worth a trillion dollars just from ChatGPT, even if they never create AGI. Could be the biggest startup success since Facebook.
This is also my impression, a lot has changed in the last 12 months.
Podcast episode for this post:
https://open.substack.com/pub/dwatvpodcast/p/the-mask-comes-off-at-what-price
I think there are some plausible scenarios where they fail at AGI but are still a good investment. Automating a few percent of human cognitive tasks would add trillions of dollars to the global economy. Maybe it takes 50 years to go from 5% automation to 100% automation and some other company gets their first, but they still make many trillions in profits along the way.