I previously looked at various prediction markets related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Scott Alexander provides an update on some prices, notices he is confused in various ways by the motions of various prices. It seems easy enough to mostly explain
Not a market comment, but something you wrote sparked a thought to consider. What if Putin is replaced not because the invasion was a bad idea, but because it was run so poorly? And the new ruler has convinced the right people that he has a better way to run it?
Ad Zelenskyy market, it says April, not March, so there's a month more than you seem to think from your analysis: "As of this graph there are only seven days left", so it's not just an assassination market, a lot can happen in a month.
It seems right to me that Russian chances of taking three out of six named cities can be almost reduced to their chances of taking Kharkiv.
Out of the six cities, Russia has already taken one (Kherson), and seems on the verge of taking another (Mariupol). If they don’t take Mariupol, there is almost no way they’ll get to three cities.
Out of the remaining four, Lviv can be counted out, and Kharkiv is by far most likely to fall. Like in Kyiv, Russians are on its outskirts, but unlike in Kyiv, there are deep Russian advances both north and south of Kharkiv, so it is in far more danger of being totally cut off.
Kyiv situation is well known.
Last city is Odessa, and there, Russians as of yesterday (I am not caught up with today’s news) are stuck on the line of the Southern Bug river, about 100 km west (edit: east) of the city. There are suggestions that they might try to take the city in an amphibious assault, but that imho could be safely discounted unless it would be combined operation with regular army advancing on land. Amphibious assaults are very hard.
Vinnytsia is in the northwest; market estimating Russian chances of controlling it as being lower that Kyiv is correct.
There are some some markets in this selection that seem off, but I don’t have the time to go over them.
On your puzzle for the Putin market (I did buy him down): don't forget the counterparty risk. Key is the fact this market will be open for ~three more quarters. You have the risk he will survive plus the counterparty/legal shutdown risk for Insight Prediction. It's why I have been reluctant to risk more than .1 eth on that site; others seem less careful.
Not a market comment, but something you wrote sparked a thought to consider. What if Putin is replaced not because the invasion was a bad idea, but because it was run so poorly? And the new ruler has convinced the right people that he has a better way to run it?
Ad Zelenskyy market, it says April, not March, so there's a month more than you seem to think from your analysis: "As of this graph there are only seven days left", so it's not just an assassination market, a lot can happen in a month.
It seems right to me that Russian chances of taking three out of six named cities can be almost reduced to their chances of taking Kharkiv.
Out of the six cities, Russia has already taken one (Kherson), and seems on the verge of taking another (Mariupol). If they don’t take Mariupol, there is almost no way they’ll get to three cities.
Out of the remaining four, Lviv can be counted out, and Kharkiv is by far most likely to fall. Like in Kyiv, Russians are on its outskirts, but unlike in Kyiv, there are deep Russian advances both north and south of Kharkiv, so it is in far more danger of being totally cut off.
Kyiv situation is well known.
Last city is Odessa, and there, Russians as of yesterday (I am not caught up with today’s news) are stuck on the line of the Southern Bug river, about 100 km west (edit: east) of the city. There are suggestions that they might try to take the city in an amphibious assault, but that imho could be safely discounted unless it would be combined operation with regular army advancing on land. Amphibious assaults are very hard.
Vinnytsia is in the northwest; market estimating Russian chances of controlling it as being lower that Kyiv is correct.
There are some some markets in this selection that seem off, but I don’t have the time to go over them.
On your puzzle for the Putin market (I did buy him down): don't forget the counterparty risk. Key is the fact this market will be open for ~three more quarters. You have the risk he will survive plus the counterparty/legal shutdown risk for Insight Prediction. It's why I have been reluctant to risk more than .1 eth on that site; others seem less careful.
Interestingly enough there's a Robert de Neufville substack post just today with a strong opinion on Putin's odds
https://tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/can-putin-survive