This is another Covid-style Ukraine post in the ‘here are all the things that caught my attention since the last one of these posts’ tradition. I have noticed that the rate at which I notice noteworthy new things while looking at my sources has declined steadily. The situation is becoming more static, and ambiguity over what is happening is steadily declining.
I think the consensus views you cite underestimate Russia's capacity and commitment to continue destruction.
I'd like to see US policy encourage any peace deal that is acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia. I don't see evidence of that. It seems as if the administration wants a peace that is a clear defeat for Russia.
In other words, I think our terms are tougher than Ukraine's terms. And that seems wrong.
I would see Russia invading Finland at this point as strong evidence of either an intent to mass-deploy nuclear weapons, evidence of actual insanity on the part of Putin and a decision-making quorum of Russian high command, or both. Finland's armed forces are strictly superior to Ukraine's in terms of equipment, training, and manpower. Since I don't think Putin is actually insane, I see any Russian comments on potential conflict with Finland as useful calibration on how their PR people are willing to talk about things with an approximately 0% chance of happening.
"I would like to see us offer more carrots for joining our diplomatic camp. It would, let’s say, be highly beneficial to broadly offer free trade with all the countries in dark blue who fully back our sanctions, and let anyone who joins the group later get in on those benefits. If we wanted to be really ambitious, we could offer at least the current members of that group open borders and I am pretty sure entirely good things would happen."
Sounds like the 2022 Grimdark, Amazon Prime version of the old broacast TV 1980's cold war to me. Who do you think they'll get to play the US CIA operatives training and paying Grimdark Castelo Branco?
"but also why do oligarchs always have such terrible taste?"
I was about to say at least its not as bad as brutalism, because 7 minutes ago I would have told you that nothing is worse than brutalism. But now I guess there is something worse than brutalism...
I don't know what a "super" EMP is but 30 years ago when I was in satellite communications in the army all of our equipment was "regular" EMP hardened. It's got to be better now. That super-EMP thread sounds like a good story for a novel though.
I think the consensus views you cite underestimate Russia's capacity and commitment to continue destruction.
I'd like to see US policy encourage any peace deal that is acceptable to both Ukraine and Russia. I don't see evidence of that. It seems as if the administration wants a peace that is a clear defeat for Russia.
In other words, I think our terms are tougher than Ukraine's terms. And that seems wrong.
I would see Russia invading Finland at this point as strong evidence of either an intent to mass-deploy nuclear weapons, evidence of actual insanity on the part of Putin and a decision-making quorum of Russian high command, or both. Finland's armed forces are strictly superior to Ukraine's in terms of equipment, training, and manpower. Since I don't think Putin is actually insane, I see any Russian comments on potential conflict with Finland as useful calibration on how their PR people are willing to talk about things with an approximately 0% chance of happening.
So called "Czeck Republic" is increasingly called by relatively more sensible name "Czechia"
"I would like to see us offer more carrots for joining our diplomatic camp. It would, let’s say, be highly beneficial to broadly offer free trade with all the countries in dark blue who fully back our sanctions, and let anyone who joins the group later get in on those benefits. If we wanted to be really ambitious, we could offer at least the current members of that group open borders and I am pretty sure entirely good things would happen."
Sounds like the 2022 Grimdark, Amazon Prime version of the old broacast TV 1980's cold war to me. Who do you think they'll get to play the US CIA operatives training and paying Grimdark Castelo Branco?
"but also why do oligarchs always have such terrible taste?"
I was about to say at least its not as bad as brutalism, because 7 minutes ago I would have told you that nothing is worse than brutalism. But now I guess there is something worse than brutalism...
I don't know what a "super" EMP is but 30 years ago when I was in satellite communications in the army all of our equipment was "regular" EMP hardened. It's got to be better now. That super-EMP thread sounds like a good story for a novel though.