The pace of these Ukraine posts is slowing down, and will probably slow further if things go as I expect them to go. Given how much slower things are going, this will likely be my last update on Ukraine for a few weeks. I did want to record how various things are tracking for future reference and there are some interesting things to think about, but this post proved inessential. If you’re not interested in the details you can safely skip it.
Sweden in NATO going down is just wrong - it’s basically a done deal, with the government party merely putting up some charades to allow its left flank to pretend it’s being listened to when in fact it’s getting steamrolled. Only something completely weird is going to change things.
"Is there any way he’s not President and it’s not a ‘regime change or coup’? There must be, or the next market is going to contradict this one directly. I’m going to assume it’s not as clear cut as that in terms of descriptions."
Putin's 69. That doesn't put him at a 3% chance of dying from natural causes in the next ~9 months, but if that happened I'm not sure it would count as a regime change.
Sweden in NATO going down is just wrong - it’s basically a done deal, with the government party merely putting up some charades to allow its left flank to pretend it’s being listened to when in fact it’s getting steamrolled. Only something completely weird is going to change things.
At *least* 95%, probably 97%.
"Is there any way he’s not President and it’s not a ‘regime change or coup’? There must be, or the next market is going to contradict this one directly. I’m going to assume it’s not as clear cut as that in terms of descriptions."
Putin's 69. That doesn't put him at a 3% chance of dying from natural causes in the next ~9 months, but if that happened I'm not sure it would count as a regime change.