Or: Why the current situation once again proves the need for all of my pre-existing policy preferences. Writing about the war is continuing to prove difficult, as things move quickly, the epistemic environment continues to be almost maximally hostile and a lot of elements are things where I was not previously up to speed.
> I desire people’s opinions on Kamil Galeev as a source
He seems to be able to quickly compile vast amounts of information that are deep and broad and interesting. Miraculously, somehow his points are well suited to the medium of "a giant string of pithy tweets."
ALSO I frequently worry he's exaggerating some point for the sake of storytelling, but can't yet figure out how much to worry about that.
I want to quibble a bit about the price of gasoline and petroleum in general increasing being a good thing. Higher prices are a cost weighed against the benefits we want, eg driving a car instead of walking. Prices increasing help us self ration, which is good, but better to not have to ration. Rationing is what you want when there is a limited supply to be allocated; when the supply is only limited by fiat and not actual supply, rationing is all cost. We want people to use less oil because there are better ways to achieve their ends, not because we simply make using the oil we have plenty of extra expensive.
Very thoughtful. How and when do we make clear that we would be willing g to roll back sanctions and under what circumstances? I think we must be willing to do so without insisting that Putin "resign."
So, the likely best outcome, barring Putin being ousted from power (and replaced by someone better) is a situation where there is a perception that Putin has in part "gotten away with it."
I worry that the political/media environment is so fiercely anti-Russian that this solution would be difficult domestically for any Western politician to support.
When it comes to nuclear power as an alternative to other green energy sources, what is to be done about the waste generated? Use of an Accelerator-Driven System? Vitrification? I'm pretty ignorant on the subject, and most of the (older) family members I've spoken to retain fears of a potential meltdown. Would you suggest any particular resources?
>Yet we cannot build any new plants, because the official policy is to never approve a new plant. We have defined an unsafe nuclear plant as a plant that is capable of producing energy at competitive prices - if the prices would be competitive, the official policy is to insist on additional money spent on safety, without regard to any sort of cost/benefit.
This is very much the opposite of official policy; see NEIMA, see anything the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has ever said about advanced reactors and small modular reactors.
I think Zvi is using "official" to mean "unofficial," but that could be very misleading to anyone who doesn't know what he's doing and doesn't follow nuclear issues.
So your prior policy proposals are obviously correct[1], but is there anything that you've switched on? Like, "I used to oppose X but now I support X" because of this war?
Let's maybe add in that it would be highly effective altruism these days to have somebody 'look after' Russian nuclear weapons. Some of those might otherwise 'disappear' in exchange for a few dollars, as their army and economy seems to be more or less in disarray right now.
My suggestion; there are not good and bad countries. Countries create alliances according to their interests. The other suggestion is to look at China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran are countries that feel and want to be actors, players in the world theatre and not public. Maybe it is time for a multipolar world.
> I desire people’s opinions on Kamil Galeev as a source
He seems to be able to quickly compile vast amounts of information that are deep and broad and interesting. Miraculously, somehow his points are well suited to the medium of "a giant string of pithy tweets."
ALSO I frequently worry he's exaggerating some point for the sake of storytelling, but can't yet figure out how much to worry about that.
Excellent post.
I want to quibble a bit about the price of gasoline and petroleum in general increasing being a good thing. Higher prices are a cost weighed against the benefits we want, eg driving a car instead of walking. Prices increasing help us self ration, which is good, but better to not have to ration. Rationing is what you want when there is a limited supply to be allocated; when the supply is only limited by fiat and not actual supply, rationing is all cost. We want people to use less oil because there are better ways to achieve their ends, not because we simply make using the oil we have plenty of extra expensive.
Very thoughtful. How and when do we make clear that we would be willing g to roll back sanctions and under what circumstances? I think we must be willing to do so without insisting that Putin "resign."
So, the likely best outcome, barring Putin being ousted from power (and replaced by someone better) is a situation where there is a perception that Putin has in part "gotten away with it."
I worry that the political/media environment is so fiercely anti-Russian that this solution would be difficult domestically for any Western politician to support.
When it comes to nuclear power as an alternative to other green energy sources, what is to be done about the waste generated? Use of an Accelerator-Driven System? Vitrification? I'm pretty ignorant on the subject, and most of the (older) family members I've spoken to retain fears of a potential meltdown. Would you suggest any particular resources?
Congrats on the newborn, that's awesome news!
>Yet we cannot build any new plants, because the official policy is to never approve a new plant. We have defined an unsafe nuclear plant as a plant that is capable of producing energy at competitive prices - if the prices would be competitive, the official policy is to insist on additional money spent on safety, without regard to any sort of cost/benefit.
This is very much the opposite of official policy; see NEIMA, see anything the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has ever said about advanced reactors and small modular reactors.
I think Zvi is using "official" to mean "unofficial," but that could be very misleading to anyone who doesn't know what he's doing and doesn't follow nuclear issues.
So your prior policy proposals are obviously correct[1], but is there anything that you've switched on? Like, "I used to oppose X but now I support X" because of this war?
[1] because they are largely mine
Let's maybe add in that it would be highly effective altruism these days to have somebody 'look after' Russian nuclear weapons. Some of those might otherwise 'disappear' in exchange for a few dollars, as their army and economy seems to be more or less in disarray right now.
My suggestion; there are not good and bad countries. Countries create alliances according to their interests. The other suggestion is to look at China, India, Pakistan, Turkey, Iran are countries that feel and want to be actors, players in the world theatre and not public. Maybe it is time for a multipolar world.