So I'm going to talk about the non-linking for putin staying in power. (metaculus underrates him, he's closer to 94-96% to stay in power)
Putin is among dictators unusually good at staying in power, and when dictator's lose wars they rarely fail, the main reason dictator's leave office is because they have a heart attack stroke or cancer that causes them to die. Putin is one of the least likely dictators to be couped, after all who would be behind it? https://youtu.be/vm1U5E44W90?t=130 Clearly PM putin would need to behind the plot to assasinate putin, while president putin would get the information from KGB head putin.
Ok in all seriousness Putin is a very powerful man with no actual coup threats at this time. Even if he suddenly became deeply unpopular he's extremely unlikely to leave anytime soon, he's just too well connected in the seats of power.
The most plausible way Putin leaves office is dying of a heart attack or stroke, I'll put down 25:1 odds that putin will remain in office, if you accept the caveat that if he dies of a heart attack/stroke/cancer/ect that the bet is void
If you think the answer is 'he was always 95% to stay in power and most of the 5% was health' then that makes perfect sense, but of course is a very different price and model of how this works.
Question, suppose he 'dies of a heart attack,' how would we know if it was natural?
Terminological correction: European Economic Community was a name of the organization, founded in 1957, that has been sort of merged/replaced by the EU. I could explain what happened in more detail, but it is boring and inconsenquential. Name "European Economic Community" is no longer used. "EU Economic Community" was never a thing. You probably mean European Economic Area, which is EU plus Norway plus Iceland plus Liechtenstein.
Metaculus on the fall of Kharkiv before July imho went straigt from ridiculously pessimistic (for Ukraine) to excesivelly optimistic. I would still put it at, like, 30 %
So I'm going to talk about the non-linking for putin staying in power. (metaculus underrates him, he's closer to 94-96% to stay in power)
Putin is among dictators unusually good at staying in power, and when dictator's lose wars they rarely fail, the main reason dictator's leave office is because they have a heart attack stroke or cancer that causes them to die. Putin is one of the least likely dictators to be couped, after all who would be behind it? https://youtu.be/vm1U5E44W90?t=130 Clearly PM putin would need to behind the plot to assasinate putin, while president putin would get the information from KGB head putin.
Ok in all seriousness Putin is a very powerful man with no actual coup threats at this time. Even if he suddenly became deeply unpopular he's extremely unlikely to leave anytime soon, he's just too well connected in the seats of power.
The most plausible way Putin leaves office is dying of a heart attack or stroke, I'll put down 25:1 odds that putin will remain in office, if you accept the caveat that if he dies of a heart attack/stroke/cancer/ect that the bet is void
If you think the answer is 'he was always 95% to stay in power and most of the 5% was health' then that makes perfect sense, but of course is a very different price and model of how this works.
Question, suppose he 'dies of a heart attack,' how would we know if it was natural?
The answer is you don't.
I can't find good ways to determine if it was natural or "he died of the natural cause of induced poison causing cardiac arrest".
The one case I can think of is if Putin falls ill and names someone to be his successor in case of his death then it's likely natural causes.
Terminological correction: European Economic Community was a name of the organization, founded in 1957, that has been sort of merged/replaced by the EU. I could explain what happened in more detail, but it is boring and inconsenquential. Name "European Economic Community" is no longer used. "EU Economic Community" was never a thing. You probably mean European Economic Area, which is EU plus Norway plus Iceland plus Liechtenstein.
Metaculus on the fall of Kharkiv before July imho went straigt from ridiculously pessimistic (for Ukraine) to excesivelly optimistic. I would still put it at, like, 30 %