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Paul Crowley's avatar

Who do "Schilling" and "Shilling" refer to? I thought maybe Schelling but I couldn't be sure! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Schelling

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Fenre's avatar

Interesting post thanks, a few quick points:

When you say Russia goes to war with NATO do you imagine a Ukraine scenario? Because I imagine they would "go to war" with NATO very differently, more hybrid, below art 5 threshold etc. Which I think changes your probabilities a bit.

Russian doctrine is quite explicit on the thinking that the US would find an excuse (Ukraine) to bring its troops to Europe and an excuse to invade Russia, rather than Russia invading NATO.

I would also be more scared of Russian use of tactical nukes in response to Fin/Swe membership in May/June, thereby very much agreeing that the escalation would occur in the first half of the year.

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