How’s it going? The CDC nowcast last week was 2.7% Omicron. That seemed like a reasonable guess. The CDC nowcast this week is 73% Omicron, and last week’s nowcast got revised from 2.7% to 12.6%. That’s two retroactive extra doublings last week, and then
Is there a plausible universe where a bunch of people got Omicron *instead of* Delta, decreasing the [new] case count for Delta as the case count for Omicron rose?
Is there a plausible universe where a bunch of people got Omicron *instead of* Delta, decreasing the [new] case count for Delta as the case count for Omicron rose?
Why does it matter? Because people over at metaculus had points riding on this thing. Gotta keep our priorities straight, here.
Reading this post only now, feel free to ignore my comment on your previous post on WP because this post essentially answers the comment.
The nowcast data being bad seems plausible, though it's a shame because the world in which it is accurate would have been much more interesting :)