The main action continues to be at the Omicron post. There’s still some background developments and near term developments worth noticing, but for now nothing that seems as important or that seems terribly urgent, so read that first. Executive Summary
I really wish that media, governments commentators would start to factor “Long Covid” into the discussion and appreciate the enormity of longer-term implications.
Thank you. That’s a good read, although outdated already given the discovery of microclots in recent studies of long covid patients. Theres many more children developing long covid than first thought. There’s a correlation between mild covid and long covid- for all we know the chances of developing long covid may be greater with omicron.
My point is the long Covid risk, which is greater than most people think, is simply ignored in most reporting and discussion on the topic but is important for framing policies and decisions.
The reason I'm not paying more attention to this is something like 'it's a long term problem and if everyone is getting Covid anyway there's nothing we can do to prevent it.' I have discussed it in weekly posts a bunch of times. My guess is that the big long-term effects are pretty rare.
Unfortunately they’re not that rare. This is a mass-disabling event of proportions we’ve never seen before. If people factored in the data and truth of long covid, behaviours and policies would look quite different. Early treatment in the acute phase is how we will prevent
Long covid.
Check out the latest research on microclots which are causing long covid, and read about the growing rate of long covid in children (long covid is statistically more likely to occur in mild cases)
Hi James - thank-you for this post - I actually posted on the Astral Codex Ten open thread earlier in the week asking if there were any new studies around long-COVID since the Astral Codex Ten article was posted in September. (https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/long-covid-much-more-than-you-wanted.)
I was generally met with a combination of shrugs from some people, and others derailing the conversation towards other topics. No-one provided any new info on long COVID.
And yet, if long COVID turns out to be common and / or if it significantly contributes to morbidity, and particularly if both, then it could be one of the most important elements in the overall risk calculus, personally and collectively.
If long COVID risk is something that can be prevented by taking paxlovir or other future treatments, or if risk of COVID infection can be diminished significantly with strain-specific boosters, then I think (depending on personal values) it's rational to consider taking significant steps to reduce risk of infection (N95s in public, minimising groups, indoor events etc.), until these protections are available, or until there is further information.
I would be very grateful if you could send me any links that could update me on long covid James
Hi there, thanks for your reply (and voice of reason!) of course I’d be happy to share resources. I am not sure I can include links here but I would recommend following these people on Twitter to uncover links to latest research and reports on Long Covid:
Dr Resia Pretorius (her team discovered that covid is a vascular disease that causes microclots)
Dr Asad Khan- respiratory specialist doctor and also a long covid patient
@itsbodypolitic aggregates a lot of the latest research and reporting
> Except it’s not merely a project that risks ‘millions of lives,’ it’s an existential risk that could potentially wipe out humanity or civilization. The next virus might not be this mild.
I think it's a slight exaggeration? I mean, we're not doing much to actually fight against the pandemic, in absolute sense. I assume if there was a _really scary_ virus (smallpox?) things like FDA obstructionism would be abolished under the pressure. Also, people would actually do the social isolation thing.
Technologically, we had working vaccines even before anyone outside China was infected, so...
We were exceedingly lucky here that mRNA vaccination was super effective. Suppose that wasn't true, it had the infectiousness profile of Omicron, but was deadlier and reinfects people repeatedly? What happens?
I really wish that media, governments commentators would start to factor “Long Covid” into the discussion and appreciate the enormity of longer-term implications.
Like this?
https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/long-covid-much-more-than-you-wanted
Thank you. That’s a good read, although outdated already given the discovery of microclots in recent studies of long covid patients. Theres many more children developing long covid than first thought. There’s a correlation between mild covid and long covid- for all we know the chances of developing long covid may be greater with omicron.
My point is the long Covid risk, which is greater than most people think, is simply ignored in most reporting and discussion on the topic but is important for framing policies and decisions.
The reason I'm not paying more attention to this is something like 'it's a long term problem and if everyone is getting Covid anyway there's nothing we can do to prevent it.' I have discussed it in weekly posts a bunch of times. My guess is that the big long-term effects are pretty rare.
Unfortunately they’re not that rare. This is a mass-disabling event of proportions we’ve never seen before. If people factored in the data and truth of long covid, behaviours and policies would look quite different. Early treatment in the acute phase is how we will prevent
Long covid.
Check out the latest research on microclots which are causing long covid, and read about the growing rate of long covid in children (long covid is statistically more likely to occur in mild cases)
Hi James - thank-you for this post - I actually posted on the Astral Codex Ten open thread earlier in the week asking if there were any new studies around long-COVID since the Astral Codex Ten article was posted in September. (https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/long-covid-much-more-than-you-wanted.)
I was generally met with a combination of shrugs from some people, and others derailing the conversation towards other topics. No-one provided any new info on long COVID.
And yet, if long COVID turns out to be common and / or if it significantly contributes to morbidity, and particularly if both, then it could be one of the most important elements in the overall risk calculus, personally and collectively.
If long COVID risk is something that can be prevented by taking paxlovir or other future treatments, or if risk of COVID infection can be diminished significantly with strain-specific boosters, then I think (depending on personal values) it's rational to consider taking significant steps to reduce risk of infection (N95s in public, minimising groups, indoor events etc.), until these protections are available, or until there is further information.
I would be very grateful if you could send me any links that could update me on long covid James
Hi there, thanks for your reply (and voice of reason!) of course I’d be happy to share resources. I am not sure I can include links here but I would recommend following these people on Twitter to uncover links to latest research and reports on Long Covid:
Dr Resia Pretorius (her team discovered that covid is a vascular disease that causes microclots)
Dr Asad Khan- respiratory specialist doctor and also a long covid patient
@itsbodypolitic aggregates a lot of the latest research and reporting
I wonder if Amanda Marcotte has caught the real rapists yet.
> Except it’s not merely a project that risks ‘millions of lives,’ it’s an existential risk that could potentially wipe out humanity or civilization. The next virus might not be this mild.
I think it's a slight exaggeration? I mean, we're not doing much to actually fight against the pandemic, in absolute sense. I assume if there was a _really scary_ virus (smallpox?) things like FDA obstructionism would be abolished under the pressure. Also, people would actually do the social isolation thing.
Technologically, we had working vaccines even before anyone outside China was infected, so...
We were exceedingly lucky here that mRNA vaccination was super effective. Suppose that wasn't true, it had the infectiousness profile of Omicron, but was deadlier and reinfects people repeatedly? What happens?
As the Prophet Zvi foretold