An IHME report came out over the weekend. I was pleasantly surprised by it contents. Its conclusions and projections broadly match what I said in the last Omicron post, with only relatively minor obvious nonsense, and seemed worth their own post to break down.
Great stuff. Re: the IHME "vaccine effectiveness" chart, based on previous data (accepting that it is ancestral or delta), where would we expect "had a single infection of Omicron, no vaccines" to fall? I ask since it seems like we are (and have already) going to acquire a great deal of people in that category in the short term, and it seems like it would be important to know (obviously can't be certain) if this omicron wave is going to create a large, long-term (permanent?) trough or not.
Really appreciate all your content. I'm wondering if you could model the efficacy of different sorts of masking given increased transmissibility of first the Delta and now Omicron variants. How much time protection does an N95 provide in a closed environment with an infected person? What implications does this have for when and where we use masking interventions? Would be happy to email on the subject if you don't think it warrants a post.
I definitely agree with the concept, what's the point of quarantine and disruption if there's no prospect for controlling transmission?
I have two little kids in daycare, aged 2 and 4. The 4-year old tested positive on Fri (4 days ago). The daycare shut down her entire classroom of a dozen kids for 10 days.
Both of my kids have to stay home for 10 days. And, the part that makes even less sense is my 2 year-old has to stay home an *additional* 10 days after that because according to the school "his quarantine would start after her quarantine ends." Is this right?! This leads to the absurd result that if my son actually tests positive, he could go back to school sooner than if he *doesn't* get it. Then again, perhaps it's a foregone conclusion that everyone in our house will get it or already has it--impossible to isolate such small kids--so maybe he won't have to stay home all 20 days anyway. And we got 3 more emails today that people in other classes have tested positive, so maybe other entire classes are also now closed for 10 days.
Sounds similar to the Great Barrington Declaration
“Our alternative policy scenarios, including more rapid scale-up of boosters to all who have been previously vaccinated, increasing mask use to 80%, and vaccinating the partially hesitant, have only a small impact on the trajectory over the next 4 months. The speed of the epidemic is so fast that policy interventions will have little impact. In previous waves, the control strategy has been to control infection and thus reduce hospitalization and death. Given that there is little prospect of controlling infection, strategies need to focus on reducing harm in the vulnerable and minimizing disruption.”
Great stuff. Re: the IHME "vaccine effectiveness" chart, based on previous data (accepting that it is ancestral or delta), where would we expect "had a single infection of Omicron, no vaccines" to fall? I ask since it seems like we are (and have already) going to acquire a great deal of people in that category in the short term, and it seems like it would be important to know (obviously can't be certain) if this omicron wave is going to create a large, long-term (permanent?) trough or not.
Really appreciate all your content. I'm wondering if you could model the efficacy of different sorts of masking given increased transmissibility of first the Delta and now Omicron variants. How much time protection does an N95 provide in a closed environment with an infected person? What implications does this have for when and where we use masking interventions? Would be happy to email on the subject if you don't think it warrants a post.
I definitely agree with the concept, what's the point of quarantine and disruption if there's no prospect for controlling transmission?
I have two little kids in daycare, aged 2 and 4. The 4-year old tested positive on Fri (4 days ago). The daycare shut down her entire classroom of a dozen kids for 10 days.
Both of my kids have to stay home for 10 days. And, the part that makes even less sense is my 2 year-old has to stay home an *additional* 10 days after that because according to the school "his quarantine would start after her quarantine ends." Is this right?! This leads to the absurd result that if my son actually tests positive, he could go back to school sooner than if he *doesn't* get it. Then again, perhaps it's a foregone conclusion that everyone in our house will get it or already has it--impossible to isolate such small kids--so maybe he won't have to stay home all 20 days anyway. And we got 3 more emails today that people in other classes have tested positive, so maybe other entire classes are also now closed for 10 days.
Sounds similar to the Great Barrington Declaration
“Our alternative policy scenarios, including more rapid scale-up of boosters to all who have been previously vaccinated, increasing mask use to 80%, and vaccinating the partially hesitant, have only a small impact on the trajectory over the next 4 months. The speed of the epidemic is so fast that policy interventions will have little impact. In previous waves, the control strategy has been to control infection and thus reduce hospitalization and death. Given that there is little prospect of controlling infection, strategies need to focus on reducing harm in the vulnerable and minimizing disruption.”