Don't Worry About the Vase

Start your day with pragmatic takes on politics and public policy.

all models are wrong, but some are useful

Essays about buildings, infrastructure, and industrial technology.

Caplan and Candor

Systems Politics and Regime Change

Deep coverage of technology, China, US policy, and war. We feature original analysis alongside interviews with leading thinkers and policymakers.

Join top forecaster Peter Wildeford as he forecasts our fast paced future and discusses AI, national security, innovation, emerging technology, and the powers - real and metaphorical - that shape our world.

Preparing for a world with AGI

Intermittent thoughts on navigating the transition to a world with extremely advanced AI systems

This is a blog on why we believe and do what we do, why we pretend otherwise, how we might do better, and what our descendants might do, if they don't all die.

Essays and analysis about elections, media, sports, poker, and all the other things I care about.

P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B), all the rest is commentary.

Underrated opportunities in science, technology, and society

improving social epistemology, rewarding reasoned discourse